Redefining Afghanistan: Role of China and Pakistan

Afghanistan, historically dubbed “the graveyard of empires,” has once again become the epicenter of a geopolitical contest. Following the withdrawal of the US forces in 2021 and the Taliban’s return to power, the country is entering a new phase of regional power dynamics. Two key players, China and Pakistan, find themselves as allies in navigating Afghanistan’s uncertain future. While their interests align in certain areas, their relationship is complex, shaped by geopolitical ambitions, security concerns, and economic aspirations.

The Rise of China and Changing Geopolitical Dynamics

China and Pakistan share a long history of cooperation, often described as an “all-weather friendship.” The bond, built over decades, has solidified in recent years through projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The two countries have worked together on various fronts, particularly on economic and security cooperation, and they find common ground in Afghanistan due to shared concerns over stability, extremism, and the potential for economic expansion. Pakistan, which has deep historical ties with Afghanistan, is keenly aware of the impact of instability in its western neighbor on its own security and internal dynamics. For decades, Pakistan has played an influential role in Afghan politics, often mediating between factions, including the Taliban. China, meanwhile, has grown increasingly interested in Afghanistan, not just as a security issue but as an opportunity for economic investment, given the country’s rich natural resources.

China’s involvement in Afghanistan is primarily driven by two key objectives: security and economic opportunity. First, security concerns, particularly in the Xinjiang region, are paramount for Beijing. China fears that instability in Afghanistan could spill over into Xinjiang, potentially allowing extremist groups like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) to gain a foothold and threaten Chinese sovereignty. Second, Afghanistan’s vast untapped mineral wealth has caught China’s attention. Afghanistan is home to significant deposits of copper, lithium, and rare earth metals, critical for global industries, especially as the world moves toward clean energy technologies. As part of its broader BRI strategy, China sees Afghanistan as a potential piece of its expanding global trade network. If stability can be achieved, China could play a major role in developing Afghanistan’s infrastructure and natural resources.

or China, the key concern is preventing a resurgence of Uighur militancy, while Pakistan worries about the resurgence of groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). However, both nations are also acutely aware of the opportunity Afghanistan presents.

Pakistan’s involvement in Afghanistan has been both crucial and controversial. It has long been accused of supporting the Taliban, a claim it denies, though its influence on the group is undeniable. After the US withdrawal, Pakistan found itself in a unique position, having maintained a working relationship with the Taliban while facing international pressure to encourage stability and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorist activities. For Pakistan, Afghanistan represents both a security challenge and an economic opportunity. On the security front, instability in Afghanistan fuels militancy and refugee flows that exacerbate Pakistan’s internal challenges. On the economic front, Afghanistan could be a key player in regional connectivity projects, with Pakistan acting as a bridge between Afghanistan and China through CPEC. Peace and stability in Afghanistan could unlock significant trade and transit potential for Pakistan, linking Central Asia, China, and the Middle East.

China and Pakistan, as key regional players, are likely to continue working closely in Afghanistan, though their approaches may vary. Both countries will need to manage their relationship carefully, balancing immediate security needs with long-term economic ambitions.

As China and Pakistan navigate their roles in Afghanistan, the question of the country’s future remains uncertain. The Taliban’s ability to govern effectively is still in doubt, as Afghanistan faces a dire humanitarian crisis, a crumbling economy, and the persistent threat of extremism. Both China and Pakistan are wary of Afghanistan becoming a breeding ground for terrorism, especially groups that may target their interests.

Power Struggle: The Cost of Geopolitical Ambitions

For China, the key concern is preventing a resurgence of Uighur militancy, while Pakistan worries about the resurgence of groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). However, both nations are also acutely aware of the opportunity Afghanistan presents. If stability can be ensured, Afghanistan could become a crucial node in regional connectivity projects that benefit both Pakistan and China. China’s BRI, which has already made inroads into Central Asia, could further expand through Afghanistan, creating a vast network of infrastructure and trade routes. A stable Afghanistan for Pakistan would mean a reduction in security risks and the chance to reap economic benefits through trade and regional cooperation.

In many ways, China and Pakistan’s engagement in Afghanistan can be seen as part of the “New Great Game,” which is a modern version of the 19th-century geopolitical rivalry in Central Asia. Unlike the old Great Game, however, this new phase is less about imperial ambitions and more about securing strategic and economic interests.

China and Pakistan, as key regional players, are likely to continue working closely in Afghanistan, though their approaches may vary. Both countries will need to manage their relationship carefully, balancing immediate security needs with long-term economic ambitions. Both countries will need to manage their relationship carefully, balancing immediate security needs with long-term economic ambitions. If successful, they could emerge as central figures in shaping Afghanistan’s future, turning a country once synonymous with conflict into a hub of regional connectivity and cooperation. 

China and Pakistan’s evolving roles in Afghanistan underscore the delicate balance between security and opportunity. As allies, they have much to gain from stable Afghanistan, but they also face significant risks if the country descends into chaos. The stakes are high, not just for Afghanistan but for the broader region. Whether China and Pakistan can navigate this “New Great Game” successfully will depend on their ability to work together, adapt to shifting realities, and find a way to ensure that their interests align in this unpredictable landscape.