Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment : What Could End Civilization and How to Prevent It

Global catastrophic and existential risks pose profound threats to humanity, with the potential to disrupt or even eradicate human civilization. These risks—ranging from nuclear war to severe pandemics—demand urgent attention and action to ensure a secure future for all. With support from the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, USA, this assessment examines the nature, likelihood, and mitigation strategies for six primary threats: artificial intelligence (AI), asteroid and comet impacts, climate change, nuclear war, pandemics, and supervolcanoes.

An Overview of Global Catastrophic Risks

The report categorizes six threats that pose potential global dangers, with each varying in impact likelihood and potential consequences:

1. Artificial Intelligence (AI): The development of advanced AI systems raises concerns about societal destabilization, economic disruptions, and risks of unaligned AI systems leading to disastrous outcomes. While AI may amplify risks associated with nuclear war, pandemics, and climate change, its long-term impact is uncertain, given the lack of empirical evidence and rigorous modeling.
2. Asteroids and Comets: Large asteroids and comets pose a rare but severe threat. While smaller impactors cause regional destruction, larger ones could have global effects, potentially resulting in human extinction. However, the likelihood of a significant impact is low, estimated to occur every ten million years for large impactors.
3. Climate Change: Climate change is already affecting global ecosystems, causing deaths and widespread disruption. As the Earth warms, extreme weather events and ecosystem collapse may escalate, potentially leading to catastrophic impacts on human life. While there is considerable evidence on short-term climate impacts, long-term predictions remain uncertain.
4. Nuclear War: A nuclear conflict could kill millions directly and indirectly through economic collapse and environmental devastation. The probability of nuclear war remains highly dependent on human decision-making, making it a critical but unpredictable risk.
5. Pandemics: Both naturally occurring and synthetic pandemics present substantial risks to global health and stability. While naturally occurring pandemics are likely to increase due to human behavior, there is limited evidence to assess the likelihood of pandemics arising from lab accidents or engineered pathogens.
6. Supervolcanoes: Supervolcanic eruptions, although rare, can cause regional environmental devastation and global climate effects. While there is scientific evidence for past eruptions, predicting future events and their impacts remains challenging due to geological uncertainties.

Key Findings: An Increasing Risk Landscape

The report indicates that global catastrophic risk is on the rise and may continue to increase in the next decade. Specifically, risks related to AI, climate change, nuclear war, and pandemics are likely to grow, driven by technological advances, geopolitical instability, and global interconnectivity. Conversely, risks from supervolcanoes and asteroid impacts may remain stable, given their natural and infrequent occurrence.

Four critical factors are influencing these risk trends:

• Technological Advancement: Rapid technological progress, particularly in AI and biotechnology, increases both the potential for beneficial applications and the risk of unintended consequences.
• Global Governance and Coordination: A lack of effective international governance to manage these risks limits our ability to address them collectively.
• Human Development: Social inequalities and economic instability can fuel conflicts and make societies more vulnerable to catastrophic events.
• Interconnections Among Risks: Many of these threats interact, potentially amplifying each other. For instance, AI can exacerbate risks in climate change, nuclear warfare, and pandemics.

Mitigation Strategies for Global Catastrophic Risks

Effective risk management practices to mitigate these threats fall into two broad categories: prevention and consequence reduction. The report highlights various mitigation measures, including technical solutions, improved governance, and research:

1. Artificial Intelligence: Developing safe AI technologies, pausing development when necessary, and maintaining human oversight in high-risk areas are essential for reducing the likelihood of AI-related catastrophes. Continual performance monitoring and regulatory frameworks are also recommended.
2. Asteroids and Comets: Detection systems and experimental space deflection methods can potentially prevent asteroid impacts. Establishing a planetary defense framework and coordinating with international partners would improve resilience against this risk.
3. Climate Change: Comprehensive climate policies, geoengineering, and technological innovations are necessary to curb greenhouse gas emissions and manage ecosystem stability. Climate adaptation strategies must also be developed to address near-term environmental risks.
4. Nuclear War: Reducing nuclear arsenals, advancing arms control agreements, and promoting diplomacy are essential to lowering the risk of nuclear conflict. Civil defense measures, such as bomb shelters and evacuation plans, could also mitigate the impact of a nuclear event.
5. Pandemics: Enhancing biosurveillance, investing in public health infrastructure, and improving pandemic preparedness are critical steps. Governments should adopt rigorous standards for lab safety and synthetic biology to minimize accidental outbreaks and misuse.
6. Supervolcanoes: Given the limited ability to prevent supervolcanic eruptions, research on early warning systems and potential mitigation techniques, such as population evacuations, can help reduce the impact of such events.

Recommendations for a Resilient Future

The report recommends the following actions to manage these risks effectively:

• Comprehensive Risk Assessments: Government agencies should conduct in-depth analyses of global catastrophic risks to guide preparedness and resource allocation.
• Research and Development: Federal funding for research on these risks should be expanded to improve risk assessments and devise novel mitigation strategies.
• International Collaboration: Cross-border cooperation is vital to address these global threats effectively. Countries must establish collaborative frameworks to share data, coordinate responses, and collectively manage catastrophic risks.
• Flexible Planning: Risk management strategies should adapt to emerging scientific evidence and uncertainties. Since some risks may be difficult to predict or fully comprehend, flexible strategies that can evolve over time are essential.

Conclusion

Addressing global catastrophic risks is a pressing need for humanity’s future. While certain risks, such as supervolcanoes and asteroid impacts, are naturally occurring and unlikely to change soon, other risks, including AI, climate change, nuclear war, and pandemics, are increasingly influenced by human actions. Building a resilient world requires proactive, coordinated efforts to manage and mitigate these threats. With the right measures, we can reduce the likelihood and impact of global catastrophic events, ensuring a safer and more sustainable future for generations to come.