The Ascent Of Trump: Redefining Washington’s Political Landscape
- Trump's "America First" policy reshapes U.S. international relations, limiting aid and emphasizing self-interest.
- Likely Israeli support, cautious engagement with Russia-Ukraine, and strong stance on China impact global stability.
- Pakistan-U.S. relations may remain security-focused, with preference shown to India as a strategic ally.
“America First! American People First! American Products First!”! With these bold promises, Trump has artfully won frustrated voters and made his path clear to retake Washington. Apart from the dramatic democratic recession in American society and the great leap forward of autocratic proclivities, Trump has artfully unearthed the weakened base of the Democratic Party, craftily played populistic cards in a divided nation, and knavishly beat back concerns of moral failing. Throughout his election campaign, he made some promises that would not only reshape and realign international politics but also impact almost every walk of many developed and developing countries. Pakistan is no exception at all.
In his first tenure from 2017 to 2021, he remained stuck to his so-called policy of ‘America First,’ which eventually compelled him to withdraw the USA from various international agreements, limit support and assistance to some key international organizations, launch a war against China, adopt an antagonistic approach towards allies, and the list is quite long.
Of his stated policies, even though he categorically emphasized the non-interventionist approach towards other countries, it would become an uphill battle for him as far as the Middle East case is concerned. In my view, Mr. Trump is likely to take a hands-off approach toward Israel’s military actions against Hamas and Hezbollah, potentially giving Israeli forces greater freedom in dealing with these groups without concerns over human rights objections. This can be substantiated by the fact that the USA deems the defense of Israel as mandatory as we (Muslims) consider that of Mecca and Madina.
The entire policy of Trump’s administration towards Israel was based on biblical predictions of the future, which regard the Israelis as chosen people of God, and any threat to them is a threat to the US and the Christians. This exactly is what the conservatives in the US believe. Also, the Zionist influence in the US Congress is underestimated.
Another section in Congress that is not very religious, i.e., the left, deems Israel as an offshore military base in the Middle East. Israel, illegitimately, exists in the middle of Arab Muslim countries. Israel is an asset in the long term for the US. Conversely, countries like Iran may find themselves in troubled waters of Trump’s return, as he has historically imposed heavy sanctions and taken a hard stance against its regime.
In a similar vein, Trump has explicitly mentioned that he would strive hard to put an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours. Yes, on one hand, Trump is a conservative politician. He is expected to not only reduce military aid but may also limit support and assistance to Ukraine, which will ultimately push Ukraine towards peace and negotiation. However, through my pragmatic lens, as was the case in his first term, the reality is likely to be much harder and messier than he’s suggested.
Along with this, Trump has made very clear on the campaign trail that he believes major changes to US foreign policy are necessary, particularly in the realm of the economy. He prefers to have a ‘protectionist approach’ against all trade partners, specifically with China. In his last tenure, while tariffs benefited some workers in import-competing industries, they hurt workers in sectors that rely on imported inputs and those in exporting industries, facing retaliation from trade partners, particularly from China, which eventually disrupted the business cycle in the country. Domestically, he has promised tax reductions and cuts in various sectors, which may help in reviving and regaining consumer confidence. Practically, through a realistic lens, America’s economy is ailing, and further tax reduction would exacerbate the economic mess.
Going beyond this, for geopolitical power shift, particularly in South Asia, Trump deems India an asset as well as a satellite state for promoting American interests in the region. The topmost interest of the USA is to counter the growing influence of China in the region. For this to happen, Trump may reassess his commitment to making India a crucial partner in counterbalancing the Chinese influence in the region. In this regard, India’s nuclear capabilities, its invincible military might, and its growing economy make it a key player for the USA, particularly in South Asia.
As far as the Pakistani case is concerned, we (Pakistani) are such a strange and bizarre nation that always prefers to live in fool paradise. Many of us have made some sort of assumption that Trump’s wins in America will bring a favorable outcome for Imran’s political future and establish a platform for smooth mutual relationships. These expectations are wrong and far from the realities of the USA’s foreign policy. So, what will happen? Trump’s presidency would mean there may be a reduction of foreign aid to the country as he emphasizes the American interest. In addition to this, Trump will remain stuck to the traditional approach of the USA to have a relationship with Pakistan in a specific security domain rather than democratic or economic development. Lastly, Trump has shown a clear preference for India as a partner during his campaign, so any gain to India is a loss to Pakistan.
The writer has a keen interest in global and regional politics.
