Coal & the Renewable World

In the ongoing push for a greener future, we find ourselves drawn time and again to success stories: record-breaking solar arrays and sprawling wind farms focused on pointing out a fossil-free future. Of course, these are important, and they bring into the limelight human ingenuity designed to capture clean energy.

But beneath this optimistic narrative lies a reality we cannot ignore: coal remains a cornerstone of energy for the world’s largest economies. For countries such as India and China, coal’s grip on energy production is not loosening; in fact, it may tighten as those countries strive to keep energy affordable.

Global Warming: A National Security Threat

India’s affair with coal is a love-hate one, reflecting any contradiction at the heart of today’s energy transition. In recent months, India has seen a dip in coal-generated power, driven in part by increased solar output and lower demand. It may sound promising on the surface—a snare indicating that renewables are making progress. But not so fast.

In the current fiscal year, demand for coking coal—the indispensable feedstock for making steel—is at a six-year high. India has an ambitious push in solar, but that hasn’t dented its reliance on coal a great deal, particularly in industrial sectors where renewables can ill afford to replace.

But this dependence on coal goes beyond electricity; it’s a matter of sustaining economic growth. India’s steel industry, for instance, relies on coking coal to supply the fast-growing demand from construction and manufacturing. In other words, while solar might electrify homes, coal is indispensable in India’s industrial economy. For a country trying to raise living standards for more than a billion people, coal is indispensable because of its affordability and availability.

Similarly, in China—often touted as the world leader in renewable capacity—there is a paradoxical view on the role of coal in its energy landscape. While surpassing every other nation in investing in solar and wind, China built an impressive infrastructure for renewables. On the other hand, coal generates about 60% of China’s electricity—a figure that has not fallen as much as many would hope it would. Instead, with rising electrical needs in the country, coal use has gone up versus down.

China has little intention of shuttering its coal plants anytime soon. With a political commitment to affordable energy, coal supplies remain central to its energy strategy. The irony, of course, is that China’s success in renewable manufacturing—producing the solar panels, wind turbines, and even batteries the world depends on—owes in large part to coal. Cheap coal energy powers the factories that make this technology possible, allowing China to lead in clean technology even as it leans hard on fossil fuels.

Lahore’s Smog Crisis: Climate Diplomacy, and Green Lockdown

It is one of the great ironies of the energy transition that this is a chain at every stage powered by coal. The turbines and panels making the renewable revolution are in the start-up phase, requiring enormous amounts of energy—much of which still comes from coal throughout most of Asia.

For now, though, it’s the cheapest and most readily available feedstock for factories churning out these green technologies. So it goes: as the global hunger for renewables increases, so too might the demand for coal-powered manufacturing.

After all, in its latest World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recognized the gaining momentum of renewable energy, projecting that by 2030, the world’s capacity for solar and wind could almost double. This, in theory, would let renewables meet much of the rising global electricity demand and possibly cut coal-fired generation of power.

Yet, even the IEA now admits that coal’s role will not be shrinking as quickly as it once hoped.

But with growing electricity needs, especially in China and India, the agency was forced to elevate its forecast for coal consumption. Global demand for coal by 2030 now is expected to be about 6 percent greater than was forecast. A projection underlining starkly the reality that renewable gains alone will not rid the world of coal in the near term, and the shift away from coal probably will be slower than many anticipate.

The IEA revision thus reflects the wider challenge in energy transition. While the beginning of the phase-out of coal has begun in Europe and parts of North America, the picture is different elsewhere. Economic growth and energy security remain top priorities in Asia, and coal provides them with a steady, reasonable option. Thus, the role of coal in the global energy mix is far from becoming redundant, and the path toward reduction of dependence on it is much more complex than projected.

China and India’s approach to balancing renewables with coal puts a realistic perspective on energy policy. Both nations have realized that their national stability relies on affordable, reliable energy—something renewables, despite their promise, cannot yet deliver alone. In China, massive investments in solar and wind go hand-in-hand with continued coal power plant development. India similarly is working to integrate renewables and maintain coal in support of industry and to meet growing demand.

Climate Governance and Pakistan

These may arguably seem like counterproductive decisions from the West’s point of view, but they tend to underscore one simple fact: economic stability and affordable energy cannot be sacrificed on the altar of reduction of emissions alone. Ambitious transitions, sans a rich energy base, resulting in shortages and economic setbacks—as recent experiences in the United Kingdom are showing.

The UK has taken it one step further—a rather radical policy: it shut down its last coal plant and is heavy into renewables and storage, particularly in batteries. Not without their problems, mind you. The UK now is planning for possible blackouts during periods of peak demand when renewable sources cannot generate sufficient and sustained energy.

A pivotal question thus remains: should other countries take a page from the UK’s ambitious transition or one closer to balance, like China and India? The possible lesson to learn might be that any successful energy transition must be pragmatically balanced, considering the role of more traditional sources like coal in a move toward cleaner options. A hasty phaseout of coal, with baseload capacity that has not been adequately prepared, opens out the risks of energy security. In that respect, China and India remind us through their policy choices that grid stability and economic resilience are just as important as emission reduction.

Most likely, the road to minimal use of coal will be much more circuitous as the world gears toward a cleaner future. The transition away from this resource should happen in steps, keeping affordability and stability on top, since countries like China and India still need coal to fuel their economies and industries. That said, however, the global community needs to pursue renewables investment, but not at the expense of understanding what role coal will continue to play well into the future.

Coal remains part of the energy landscape because renewables are not an A-to-Z affair; it’s a tightrope, really—between aspirational goals for a green future and the cold realities of providing reliable, affordable power. For the present, at least, coal’s paradoxical role as both a driver and challenge to the green transition will keep testing our assumptions and shaping the complex realities of energy policy worldwide.