Nuclear Deterrence and Strategic Stability in South Asia: A Focus on Pakistan

Nuclear deterrence has been the bedrock of strategic stability in South Asia since the nuclearization of Pakistan and India. The nuclear tests conducted by both states not only changed the dynamics of regional security but also raised questions about the long-term stability of a region characterized by territorial disputes, historical animosities, and an arms race.

For Pakistan, nuclear deterrence is not a policy choice but rather a strategic imperative aimed at counterbalancing the conventional superiority of India and maintaining peace through the credible threat of retaliation. However, the interplay of nuclear deterrence and strategic stability in South Asia is fraught with complexities since it is affected by asymmetric warfare, doctrinal developments, and geopolitical factors on the external plane. This article explores the concept of nuclear deterrence in South Asia, exclusively focusing on Pakistan’s approach to maintaining strategic stability and addressing the challenges posed by evolving regional dynamics.

From Security to Idealogy: The Leadership Drivers Behind Nuclear Proliferation

Pakistan’s journey towards nuclear capability is deeply rooted in its geopolitical realities. Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan has had to face a hostile neighbor, India. This resentment also led to many conflicts over the Kashmir dispute. In 1974, India’s nuclear test, “Smiling Buddha,” signaled a significant escalation in the security rivalry between both neighbors. To create the balance of power in the region, Pakistan accelerated its nuclear program with full might under the leadership of then Prime Minister of Pakistan Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who famously said in 1965: “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own.” (Pakistan Nuclear Overview, 2019)

After successfully conducting the nuclear tests in 1998, Pakistan formulated a nuclear doctrine based on the principle of Minimum Credible Deterrence (MCD), which focused on maintaining a small but effective nuclear arsenal to deter aggression while avoiding an arms race due to Pakistan’s limited resources. However, in the 2010s, Pakistan adopted Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) to address emerging threats such as India’s Cold Start Doctrine, which emphasized rapid conventional military strikes. (Khan, 2014) FSD expanded deterrence to tactical, operational, and strategic levels, with the development of tactical nuclear weapons like the Nasr missile to counter conventional threats. This shift was enabled by technological advancements, including miniaturized warheads and improved delivery systems, and aimed to plug any gaps in deterrence while maintaining strategic stability.

Strategic stability in South Asia is sensitive to a fragile balance between nuclear deterrence and the escalation of conflict. Unlike the Cold War, where the US and USSR had relatively stable deterrence, South Asia’s stability is marred by unresolved territorial disputes and cross-border terrorism. The Line of Control in Kashmir remains a flashpoint with frequent confrontations that risk escalating into full-scale conflicts.

Pakistan has always maintained that nuclear weapons are a deterrent against India’s conventional and nuclear forces, but the introduction of some advanced technologies like India’s ballistic missile defense (BMD) and hypersonic weapons threatens to derail the mutual vulnerability that holds strategic stability. This forces Pakistan to become innovative, which creates regional arms races that endanger stability in the long run. (Noor, 2023)

Strategic Stability in a Multipolar Nuclear World

The evolving global geopolitical dynamics also have an impact on South Asia’s strategic stability. The 2008 US-India nuclear agreement and India’s admission to the MTCR have substantially boosted India’s nuclear weapons capability, which is clearly causing strategic imbalance in Pakistan. (Azmat, Ahsan, & Asghar, 2022) Rather, Pakistan’s reliance on China for nuclear and military technology has led to the regionalization of a global rivalry. Pakistan’s strategic autonomy has been restricted by international pressure to constrain its nuclear aspirations, particularly in light of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and accusations of proliferation. But according to Pakistan, its nuclear program is only defensive and compliant with international regulations.

The challenges to Pakistan’s nuclear strategy are multifaceted and complicate its deterrence posture and regional stability. One of the major challenges is the technological advancements in India, including the development of hypersonic missiles, which pose a direct threat to Pakistan’s second-strike capability by potentially neutralizing its retaliatory capacity in a first-strike scenario.

Issues like cross-border terrorism and insurgencies undermine the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence since such conflicts are fought below the threshold of full-scale war where nuclear weapons are less relevant. The risk of escalation is a major threat, as any miscalculation or unauthorized use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW) can result in a catastrophic nuclear exchange. These factors are compounded by Pakistan’s economic limitations, which do not allow it to continue to fund extensive nuclear modernization.

Another potential challenge is insider threats, which Pakistan mitigates through stringent screening procedures and the Personnel Reliability Program (PRP) to make sure the nuclear management personnel are reliable and qualified. A very serious threat is posed by the non-state actors, in particular, militants in the region. The constant threat of nuclear material falling into their hands is a serious concern for Pakistan.  (Salik & Luongo)

To maintain long-term strategic stability in South Asia, there must be a focus on nuclear deterrence while addressing underlying issues. For Pakistan, this involves confidence-building measures, such as agreements on missile testing and no-first-use (NFU) rules. It is also necessary to revive regional dialogues to avoid any kind of miscalculation or misperception. Stability may be further promoted by improving nuclear posture transparency and negotiating weapons limitations under regional and international frameworks. Long-term peace and security in South Asia requires a well-rounded strategy that incorporates regional collaboration, weapons limitation, and credible deterrence.