A New Direction for Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
- Strategic Projects: Initiatives like CPEC, TAPI, and CASA-1000 could boost Pakistan’s economy.
- Regional Challenges: Indian aggression, Afghan instability, and the US-China rivalry complicate efforts.
- Internal Stability: Effective policy and civil-military harmony are crucial to realizing geo-economic goals.
In this economically driven era, countries around the world are striving hard to utilize their geography and resources to advance development and prosperity. Pakistan realized the importance of its geographical location and has taken a paradigm shift in its foreign policy: from geostrategic to geoeconomic. Abundant opportunities are there in the region for the country to materialize this dream into a reality and make the country out of this mess. However, at the same time, this shift is faced with so many challenges that need to be curtailed on a priority level.
Before delving deeper into it, it is of utmost importance to have a glance at the historical approach of Pakistan. Pakistan’s foreign policy has traditionally been run by regional developments, especially the varying interests of global powers in the South Asian region, coupled with the changing political and security dynamics of neighboring countries like India and Afghanistan. From the outset of the country, the policymakers of the country focused on geo-strategic and geopolitical dimensions of foreign policy, thereby undermining its geoeconomic aspects. Although the country strived hard for many years in this regard, its National Security Policy (NSP) is officially a paradigm shift in the state’s foreign policy with centrality on geo-economics.
The new national narrative of geo-economics, if implemented in true letter and spirit, would change not only the fate of this crisis-ridden country but will also make this entire region very prosperous.
The first and foremost of such opportunities are offered by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). initiated in 2013, the BRI is preparing to connect Asia with Africa and Europe through land, maritime, and digital networks. Partly because of its strategic location and partly because of its outstanding relations with China, Pakistan has a very important role to play in BRI implementation. CPEC is a crown jewel project of BRI, which is not only a game changer for the country but also provides numerous opportunities for the recent shift in Pakistan’s approach: from geostrategic to geoeconomic.
Pakistan is located in such a way that it can take benefits from energy-rich Central Asia. Central Asia is located in the heart of Eurasia and is surrounded by regional and major powers: China, Russia, and Iran. The region’s location acts as a transport corridor for trade between Asia and Europe and or the Middle East. From a strategic perspective, Central Asia is significant for the geopolitical interest. Pakistan connects very closely with the broader region through the (recently agreed upon) trilateral Pakistan‐Afghanistan‐Uzbekistan (PAKAFUZ) railway project. Improved trade ties between Central and South Asia via PAKAFUZ will likely strengthen the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), in which Pakistan and the Central Asian Republics (CAR) participate.
Another major opportunity for this shift is in the form of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan–India (TAPI) pipeline. This project was first initiated in 1995, but proper work on the $10 billion gas pipeline finally started in Turkmenistan in 2015. After an agreement between Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan, gas would be purchased from Turkmenistan and then transported to the western and southern territories of Afghanistan, as well as central Pakistan and northwestern parts of India. The 1,814 km pipeline has been designed for 30 years and is expected to supply about 33 B cubic meters (BCM) of gas per year. TAPI is expected to increase the economies of participant countries as well as the region.
Along with the TAPI, there also lies a huge opportunity for this shift in the form of CASA‐1000, a high‐voltage electricity transmission system connecting four countries in Central and South Asia. This mammoth project will help lessen energy shortages and boost economic growth by ensuring the trade of electricity between countries in the region. The CASA‐1000 Project acts as a crucial step toward deepening regional energy cooperation and strengthening stronger prospects for cross‐border electricity trade. Field construction activities are underway on all ten construction contracts in the four CASA‐1000 countries. According to some statistics, the $1.2 billion infrastructure project is scheduled to begin commercial operation in 2024.
Though opportunities are immense, they are confronted with scores of challenges. The continuation of Indian aggressive foreign policy, especially the revivification of the Kashmir issue, and the emerging Sino-US neo-Cold War are among a few things Pakistan cannot neglect. While initiating the new priorities, the foreign policy formulators in the country ought to handle the following factors with the utmost effort.
Secondly, the uncertain situation in Afghanistan is another major factor. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan have paramount importance for each other, mainly in terms of their security needs as well as for the economic uplift of the region. Pakistan is also an integral part of two energy corridors, the Iran-Pakistan (IP) and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline projects. Though both projects are connected with Pakistan’s geo-economic goals, they cannot be successfully gained without ensuring durable peace in Afghanistan and regional security.
Thirdly, there is the China factor with specific reference to CPEC. Pakistan’s CPEC initiated with China has now become a lifeline for the country’s economy and its geostrategic vision. As long as CPEC has not materialized, Pakistan can’t accomplish its goals nor avoid dependency on the IMF.
Fourthly, the ongoing US-China rivalry is also creating so many hurdles in numerous ways. The Sino-US tussle holds geostrategic and geoeconomic implications for Pakistan. This is mainly due to the importance of both global powers for Pakistan’s geo-economic vision. Therefore, Pakistan should need to play its cards quite intelligently to remain out of the great powers’ tug-of-war. Pakistan has no other role to play in the ongoing Sino-US tensions. It is even linked with Pakistan’s desire to turn its geoeconomic vision into reality
Last but not least, materializing the dream of a geoeconomic policy shift into a reality could face serious issues if Pakistan’s current internal situation continues. Pakistan should first need to stabilize political and economic conditions through the re-establishment and harmonizing civil-military relations. In the prevailing situation, the military continues to be a strong and real political actor, and its intervention in crucial political decision‐making has not yet ended. The country also necessarily needs to make vibrant economic policies as various alterations of governments discourage investment and industrialization.
In a nutshell, Pakistan’s shift from geostrategic to geoeconomic is a move in the right direction. No one can question at least the rationality of this decision. We are part of an era that is highly driven by the economy; fortunately, the policymakers sensed the situation timely around the world. The shift to geo-economics bears a lot of opportunities, but at the same time, it is faced with so many challenges. Similarly, the current Indo-US strategic partnership, India’s belligerency towards Pakistan, and the uncertain future of Afghanistan may impede this milestone move on the part of Pakistan. The situation is not that much worse, as every mountain is not ever summited without climbing. The need of the hour is to do more of the walk and less of the talk. In this regard, the government must devise some robust and efficacious policies to sail through these turbulent times.
The writer has a keen interest in global and regional politics.
