From Pahalgam to Bunyan ul Marsoos: Pakistan’s Strategic Victory

The Pahalgam attack was a horrific and reprehensible act by any canon of law. However, what motivated this attack remains a matter of contentious debate. It is yet to be deciphered whether it was a false-flag operation or a genuine terrorist attack. From one’s perspective, it appears to be a false flag operation with one or more objectives. Various indications portray a suspicious picture of the Indian government in this terror attack. Firstly, the act of blaming Pakistan for the terror attack without a shred of evidence, followed by placing the Indus Water Treaty 1960 in abeyance the very next day, raises suspicions. Secondly, rejecting Pakistan’s offer to conduct a neutral and transparent inquiry into the Pahalgam attack was another sign that the Indian government was up to some other designs.

Even Pakistan offered an international investigation, including UNSC members and European nations, to ensure transparency. European states backed Pakistan’s proposal for a neutral investigation. India did not pay any heed to any probe into the gruesome terror attack. It was inconceivable that a so-called victim of terrorism was reluctant to launch a transparent inquiry into the matter. In contrast, an alleged perpetrator of terrorism confidently invited a neutral probe. Thirdly, India unleashed a missile attack on multiple places in Pakistan on 6-7 May, weeks after the Pahalgam incident. India claimed to be targeting “terrorist infrastructure,” but in reality, 31 civilians were killed in Indian strikes.

Indian leadership’s excessive hubris, coupled with a massive disinformation campaign, led to this distortion. During an interview with Karan Thapar, Former National Security Advisor Mooed Yusuf rightly terms this change in Indian society as a “serious problem in the collective consciousness of India.”

Violation of a state’s sovereignty and integrity without any concrete evidence and legitimacy showed that Pakistan was the target, not terrorism. Furthermore, three motives might lie behind staging the “Pahalgam Attack”. Firstly, the doggedly determined BJP government wanted to win the Bihar election. Secondly, Modi was about to turn 75, which was the retirement age from the BJP’s leadership. Therefore, Modi desired to be remembered as a hero who dealt with Pakistan with an iron fist. Thirdly, the ‘Pahalgam attack’ occurred in the presence of American Vice President JD Vance, which might be construed as a bid to portray Pakistan’s image as a terrorist state. In one’s view, all the reasons are unavoidable, but the Bihar elections might be the immediate cause.

In the Pulwama Attack of 2019, the Modi government did not achieve anything substantial on the military front but clinched a political victory. However, in 2025 old playbook did not work, and India’s misadventure put the whole region’s future at stake. Furthermore, the Modi administration’s petty goals led to the “Four-Day Conflict” between Pakistan and India. Triggered by so-called “Operation Sindoor”, the “May-Conflict” culminated in Pakistan’s operation “Bunyan ul Marsoos”. It would be pertinent to shed light on the revelations the ‘May Conflict’ offers. Besides, ushering in a new era of strategic and diplomatic strength for Pakistan, it has exposed a distorted-Indian mindset.

An alarming distortion in the Indian mindset about Pakistan and war has been observed in the post-Pahalgam conflict days. Hindutva ideology, propped up by the Indian media, created war hysteria in Indian society. The word ‘war’ had become so normalized in Indian society that it seemed like a daily life activity. The image of Pakistan in Indian society was of a fragile country riddled with multiple challenges that could be reduced to dust by the Indian Army. Indian leadership’s excessive hubris, coupled with a massive disinformation campaign, led to this distortion. During an interview with Karan Thapar, Former National Security Advisor Mooed Yusuf rightly terms this change in Indian society as a “serious problem in the collective consciousness of India.”

Following the Post-Pahalgam conflict, the war of narratives has taken hold. Pakistan has appeared to be a prominent diplomatic player on the world stage. The BJP government’s bid to isolate Pakistan seems to be futile and counterproductive. India’s failure to come up with reliable evidence of Pakistan’s culpability has scuttled its diplomatic standing.

Pakistan has poured cold water on India’s dreams of being a regional hegemon. Applying the ‘Compellence Strategy’, India challenged Pakistan’s conventional deterrence as well as its sovereignty. Pakistan, in retaliation, delivered a proportionate response to re-establish its conventional deterrence. Pakistan’s response has shifted the balance of power in its favor. Having utilized its radar jamming capability, air superiority, and precision strikes, Pakistan left India in bewilderment. Clueless in handling electronic warfare, India desperately reached out to the USA for a ceasefire. Most importantly, in recent conflicts, Pakistan has established the ‘New Normal’ by countering India’s attempt to normalize the aggression. Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal concludes my point aptly by saying that in this conflict, it has been established that “the Compellence strategy against a nuclear-armed neighbor is inadvisable.”

Following the Post-Pahalgam conflict, the war of narratives has taken hold. Pakistan has appeared to be a prominent diplomatic player on the world stage. The BJP government’s bid to isolate Pakistan seems to be futile and counterproductive. India’s failure to come up with reliable evidence of Pakistan’s culpability has scuttled its diplomatic standing. Meanwhile, the Kashmir dispute has garnered traction as an unresolved international issue. Christopher Jaffrelot maintains that Pakistan is being treated as an equal player vis-à-vis India. He adds that Pakistan was striving for this crucial parity.

Notably, Pakistan’s appointment as the vice chair of the United Nations Security Council’s Counter-Terrorism Committee and now its assumption of the presidency of the United Nations Security Council have dealt a big blow to India’s narrative. Though Pakistan’s narrative is gaining currency, our government officials and ruling elite should avoid making reckless statements that can mar our narrative. Lastly, the ‘May Conflict’ demonstrates Pakistan’s mastery over electronic warfare. Pakistan’s radar jamming capabilities to disrupt military communication and command over Chinese technology have sent shock waves through the Western world.

Indian Analyst Pravin Sawhney maintains that Pakistan has an edge in the electronic as well as the information warfare over India. Induction of J35 fighter jets would help Pakistan attain reasonable dominance in stealth technology. India is poised to make 5th-generation stealth jets locally. This conflict has provided an opportunity to reflect upon the significance of stealth fighter jets. Now, the Pak-India conflict has shifted to the domain of technology and advancement. However, this risks triggering a never-ending arms race.

In a nutshell, the Modi administration’s self-serving politics triggered the conflict and shifted the balance of power in Pakistan’s favour. Pakistan has not only re-established its conventional deterrence but also established its air superiority and dominance in electronic warfare. However, by putting the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, India has set the stage for a potentially imminent war. While preparing itself against any unwarranted future aggression from India, Pakistan should continue its struggle to restore the peace and water treaty. Furthermore, dwelling in a constant state of victory and euphoria is not an option. Internal issues, including human rights violations and provincial grievances, should be resolved to foster a sense of unity in the nation.