Great Power Competition in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR): Implications and Opportunities for Pakistan
Geopolitical competition is intensifying with each passing day, as major powers increasingly shift their focus from traditional territorial rivalries to complex geo-economic and geo-strategic dynamics. A focal point of this competition is the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), which has become a strategic hub for global maritime trade and military influence. Powers such as the United States and China have significantly increased their presence in the IOR through alliances and partnerships with regional countries. While the US-India and China-Pakistan strategic partnerships have drawn considerable global attention, the overarching competition continues to shape the region’s security dynamics.
As the US seeks to encircle China by strengthening its military and economic engagements in the region, strategic maritime routes and chokepoints have become increasingly significant. The Strait of Malacca alone accounts for 25 percent of global goods trade and one-third of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Connecting Malaysia and Indonesia, it serves as a vital corridor for commerce. Similarly, the Strait of Hormuz facilitates 30 percent of global oil shipments and links the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Another key passage, Bab al-Mandab, connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, enabling the trade of around six million barrels of oil per day. These routes make the IOR not only a critical economic zone but also a potential hotspot for strategic tensions among global powers.
Consequently, US influence in the IOR remains substantial, but the growing presence of China—particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—has introduced new dynamics in the region. The United States has reinforced its alliances with regional actors like Japan, India, South Korea, and Australia to counterbalance China’s rise. Strategic groupings such as AUKUS (Australia, the UK, and the US) and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) aim to enhance regional security capabilities, especially by upgrading Australia’s submarine nuclear power. These moves have raised concerns about the strategic equilibrium in areas like the South China Sea.
In parallel, the US has strengthened its position by leveraging territorial disputes between China and countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam, gaining access to key islands and signing agreements like the 2018 COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) with India. Japan, which also has unresolved issues with China in the IOR and South China Sea, has increasingly aligned itself with the US bloc. The Nicobar Islands near the Strait of Malacca fall under Indian control, indirectly extending US influence over this key maritime passage. The primary US interests in the region include safeguarding arms exports to Gulf allies, protecting Israel’s regional interests, and deterring any aggressive actions from Iran. The US naval bases near the Strait of Hormuz are strategically positioned to monitor Iranian activities.
Meanwhile, China has broadened its influence across the IOR in collaboration with countries like Iran, contributing to a more balanced strategic landscape. China’s “String of Pearls” strategy has enabled it to establish a network of strategic ports and maritime facilities stretching from mainland China to the Horn of Africa. Shorter and more secure maritime routes such as the Thai Canal and Kra Canal are integral to the BRI and aim to reduce dependency on the Strait of Malacca. Additionally, China has contributed to maritime security efforts by countering piracy in the Gulf of Aden and along the coast of Somalia. Seaports like Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, along with China’s overseas base in Djibouti, have enhanced the region’s connectivity and created a new maritime architecture in the IOR.
In this evolving landscape, Pakistan stands at a strategically pivotal position with numerous opportunities and challenges. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under the BRI, is crucial for both countries. It provides China with the shortest access to warm waters and a direct trade route to the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. Through Gwadar Port, China has expanded its trade with the Gulf states and Iran, while Pakistan has gained a reliable connection to Africa and Europe. CPEC has transformed Pakistan’s energy and transportation sectors, fostered the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs), and improved intra-provincial connectivity through new highways and railway upgrades. These advancements have the potential to strengthen Pakistan’s role in the emerging Blue Economy and balance India’s influence in the region.
Moreover, Pakistan’s naval partnership with China opens avenues to enhance maritime security and capacity. Initiatives such as linking Gwadar with nearby ports like Bandar Abbas and Chabahar—where regional cooperation can play a significant role—may reduce external influence and improve regional trade integration. Strengthening ties with Bangladesh could also offer Pakistan strategic access to the Bay of Bengal, traditionally a stronghold of Indian maritime interests. In this context, the deepening of the Pakistan-China partnership holds great promise for mutual advancement in the IOR.
Nevertheless, Pakistan must address several pressing challenges to fully capitalize on these opportunities. Maintaining a strategic balance between the US and China is complex yet essential. India’s growing hegemony over regional water routes, along with traditional and non-traditional maritime security threats, including piracy and smuggling, require robust national responses. Additionally, while international partnerships bring benefits, overreliance on any single actor should be managed with a view toward economic and diplomatic diversification.
To effectively navigate this competitive maritime environment, Pakistan should adopt a proactive and balanced strategy. Diversifying naval partnerships with countries such as Turkey, Russia, and the Central Asian Republics through multilateral platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) can enhance strategic depth. Maritime diplomacy involving regional players like Iran and India is crucial for fostering stability. Simultaneously, strengthening coastal security will help combat piracy and espionage threats. Investing in the development of maritime industries and maximizing Gwadar Port’s potential can boost trade connectivity with global markets.
In conclusion, while the geopolitical competition in the Indian Ocean poses significant hurdles, it also presents Pakistan with unprecedented strategic opportunities. By pursuing a balanced foreign policy, enhancing maritime infrastructure, and fostering regional cooperation, Pakistan can position itself as a key player in the Indian Ocean Region. The country’s geographical location, coupled with visionary partnerships, particularly with China, enables it to play a central role in shaping the future of this strategically vital region.
Mian Muaiz Gul
The author is a freelance writer.
