Pakistan and the Strait of Hormuz
Tucked between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but vital maritime passage that quietly carries a heavy burden.
More than 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through this slender waterway every day.
It’s just 33 kilometers wide—a geographic point with global economic consequences. As tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, the world is once again reminded of how fragile the flow of energy truly is—and how countries like Pakistan could be affected in the event of a disruption.
To reduce dependence on this strategic choke point, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have invested in alternate export routes. Saudi Aramco’s East-West pipeline—stretching from the oil-processing hub of Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu—can now carry up to 7 million barrels per day, especially after a 2019 upgrade. Similarly, the UAE operates a 1.8 million b/d pipeline that channels oil directly to the Fujairah terminal, bypassing the strait entirely.
But here’s the catch: while these pipelines exist, they’re already being used for routine exports. Their spare capacity—about 2.6 million barrels per day—falls far short of what would be needed to offset a full-scale shutdown of Hormuz. That means if the Strait is blocked, the world doesn’t have much of a backup plan.
Iran has also tried to ease its own reliance on Hormuz by launching the Goreh-Jask pipeline in 2021, enabling oil exports directly into the Gulf of Oman. But by mid-2024, exports through this route had dwindled to just 70,000 barrels a day—and by September, they had stopped entirely. The reality is stark: Iran’s alternatives are not yet reliable or scalable.
This isn’t just a Middle Eastern issue—it’s an Asian one. In 2024, 84% of all crude oil and condensate that flowed through the Strait of Hormuz was destined for Asian markets. China, India, Japan, and South Korea together accounted for a staggering 69% of that total. If Hormuz is compromised, these countries would immediately feel the heat.
So would others, like Pakistan, where over 80% of oil is imported. Rising global prices, supply shocks, and currency pressures would hit instantly.
Contrast that with the United States, which has steadily reduced its reliance on Middle Eastern oil. In 2024, U.S. imports from the Persian Gulf were just 0.5 million barrels per day—its lowest level in 40 years—thanks to increased domestic production and imports from Canada. This gives Washington strategic breathing room that many Asian countries, including Pakistan, simply don’t have.
For Pakistan, the message is clear: the country’s energy security is tightly linked to a tiny stretch of sea thousands of kilometers away. Any disruption in Hormuz would raise fuel prices, widen the trade deficit, and deepen inflationary pressure for ordinary citizens. The time to act is now. The government must seriously invest in alternative energy sources, strategic oil reserves, and regional cooperation to protect the country from future crises.
Because when a 33-kilometer stretch of water can shake the global economy, no nation is too distant to prepare.
Afzal Shah Mian
The writer is a journalist at Khyber News and an MPhil scholar in Media Sciences at SZABIST, Islamabad.
