The Militant Surge: TTP, U.S. Weapons, and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
The withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 has led to significant security challenges, primarily due to the abandonment of military equipment valued at around $7 billion. This equipment includes advanced weaponry, vehicles, aircraft, and surveillance tools. The shift in power dynamics in South Asia has benefited militant groups, particularly the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), thereby enhancing their operations.
U.S. Defense Department officials stated that the equipment was disabled before the withdrawal; however, regional security forces and intelligence agencies dispute these claims. As a result, these weapons have had a considerable impact on Pakistan, where insurgents have engaged in a revitalized insurgency, leading to unprecedented levels of violence throughout the country.
Security conditions in Pakistan are expected to remain volatile in 2025, as the TTP is intensifying its assaults on military forces, coupled with strikes against civilian targets. Security data indicates that the number of fatalities related to violence in 2024 surpassed 2,500 individuals, and it is anticipated that this year’s end count will follow a similar trend. One reason for the rise in militant attacks in Pakistan is that U.S. military equipment abandoned in Afghanistan has become available to insurgents. Pakistan’s military leadership has publicly stated that M4 rifles, night-vision goggles, and other advanced equipment have significantly enhanced the capabilities of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operations, resulting in more deadly and better-organized attacks. Female intelligence officers working for Pakistan have frequently detected major shipments of weaponry as they cross the Afghan-Pakistan border. Security forces operating at the Torkham border crossing have intercepted numerous weapons generated by the U.S., including rifles, ammunition, and military-grade explosives. However, these seizures represent only a small fraction of the total arms acquired by militant groups.
These security concerns have resulted in the serious deterioration of ties between Pakistan and the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan. The Pakistani government is actively urging Kabul to take a stand against terrorist safe havens and to prevent U.S. weapon shipments from entering Pakistan. Pakistan is growing increasingly frustrated with the Taliban leadership due to their unwillingness to act against groups that share their ideology. The Pakistani Foreign Office issued a public appeal to the international community, urging nations to intervene and prevent weapons from contributing to terrorist activities along the border. In a statement, spokesman Shafqat Ali Khan asserted that U.S. arms supplied to Afghanistan have resulted in an unstable security situation that threatens Pakistan’s national defense. While the Afghan Taliban deny supporting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operations, intelligence evidence suggests otherwise.
Security threats stem from the spread of weapons beyond Pakistan’s borders. Several Central Asian states have reported an increase in militant activities, as extremist organizations in the region may be able to acquire and distribute U.S. military equipment. Intelligence agencies have observed that some U.S. weapons have already made their way into conflict zones in the Middle East and Africa, where terrorist groups are actively seeking advanced weaponry. The United Nations is increasingly concerned about this proliferation, as these weapons have the potential to trigger insurgencies in areas extending beyond South Asia.
The deteriorating security conditions in Pakistan are causing significant economic challenges across the nation. As militant activities increase, investor confidence continues to wane, leading to economic instability. Infrastructure projects associated with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, along with other construction initiatives, are being directly threatened by insurgent actions. Security issues in Pakistan have led Chinese firms to reconsider their investments in the country, creating doubts about their continued presence. The situation is exacerbated by extremist groups that have carried out attacks against Chinese workers and facilities, generating fears of deliberate attempts to undermine Pakistan’s economic power. Ongoing terrorist activities are likely to harm both Pakistan’s economic growth and its ability to establish stable trading relationships in the region.
The situation regarding the U.S. military equipment left behind in Afghanistan has sparked renewed political debates across the United States. The U.S. has stated that the withdrawal from Afghanistan was not properly planned, leading to calls for accountability in managing military equipment. Donald Trump has called for investigators to examine how the Taliban was able to acquire significant U.S. military hardware and to explore potential strategies to mitigate the risks this poses. Some Republican lawmakers are advocating for both investigations into this issue and military operations aimed at eliminating or recovering abandoned weaponry.
However, any military effort to reclaim U.S. equipment in Afghanistan presents challenges, as the Taliban currently controls the entire country. While some U.S. weaponry and military vehicles are expected to remain operational for several years due to a lack of maintenance and replacement parts, some equipment will inevitably become unusable over time. Current military analysts and policymakers agree that these abandoned weapons pose an ongoing threat to U.S. forces in future military operations.
Therefore, the ongoing security vacuum resulting from the American withdrawal continues to impact the world, and the situation remains problematic for the foreseeable future. Non-state actors have intensified their military buildup in Afghanistan and neighboring regions due to unprofessional withdrawal methods. Pakistan, in particular, faces a challenging conflict with armed insurgents who have access to modern weapon systems for self-defense. All available data indicates that the crisis in the region is worsening rather than improving. Urgent action is needed from the international community to address U.S. weapons proliferation throughout the region, as this failure could lead to disastrous regional instability that may extend to other parts of Asia.
The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Spine Times.
Fawad Afridi
The writer is an MPhil student at the National Defense University, Islamabad, with research interests in strategic contestation in the Asia-Pacific and regional security risks in South Asia.
