The Return of Terror

Regrettably, tribal areas have once again descended into a period reminiscent of the darkest days of the early 21st century. The spectre of terrorism and violent militancy is not only hovering over law enforcement personnel and government officials, but it is equally targeting civilians alike. The recent attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have intensified debates about the causes of this wave of terrorism. Would it be possible to attribute the venomous militancy to one or more factors? Or rather, it is again flourishing in the backdrop of the new Great Game of the 21st century.

According to a recent terrorism index report, Pakistan ranks second as the country most affected by terrorism, with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emerging as the world’s fastest-growing terrorist organisation, leading to a 90% increase in deaths linked to its attacks. Reports like this and the growing reality mirror that Pakistan is badly entangled in a worse situation, which needs to be discerned to understand the myriad issues at hand, making this region fertile for terrorism and militancy.

Primarily, the Taliban coup has significantly contributed to the mushrooming terrorism in Pakistan.  No one can deny the support and facilitation the TTP and other militant groups are receiving from their spiritual and religious leaders, who are holding the doors of the Afghan government. The TTP ranks and files still pledge allegiance to the Afghan Taliban supreme leader Haibatullah Akhunzada. Even the author has vehemently cautioned about the spillover effect of the fall of Kabul in 2021 in one of his columns published in Pakistan Observer titled “Uncertain and Chaotic Afghanistan: Repercussions for erstwhile FATA,” stressing the motivation the TTP and other religious fanatics have in pursuing a similar victory in Pakistan, aiming to enforce Sharia law. Furthermore, the Afghan Taliban has been providing sanctuaries to these groups since the government’s takeover, and the TTP leader has even been granted ministerial protocol in Afghanistan. In addition to providing shelter for militant groups, the Afghan government has been using them to gain leverage over Pakistan.

The South Khyber Pakhunkhwa-centric spectrum of TTP, perhaps, reflects the TTP demand to give the complete control of erstwhile FATA to TTP. This demand is the primary reason for the rise in terrorist attacks in South KPK, especially considering its proximity to Afghanistan. Additionally, the porous nature of the Durand Line allows militants to cross the border and carry out atrocities.

Guns Kill Terrorists, But Not Terrorism

Disappointingly, the state has failed time and again to establish its rights in these areas and pursue non-kinetic measures, alongside kinetic measures, to curb the menace of terrorism effectively. The state is equally responsible for the economic, political, and social marginalisation areas, thus making the youngster susceptible to the influence of extremist elements. For instance, FATA continues to have the lowest literacy rate, coupled with a lack of essential services and violations of basic human rights. These factors fuel resentment, hopelessness, and insecurity among the people, thereby creating a fertile ground for extremist elements to thrive.

Another significant factor that receives little attention is the lack of strategic clarity among religious figures in Pakistan, particularly in KPK, about different militant groups. Everyone defines it the way that suits them. Things are so diffused and intermingled that one can’t differentiate between freedom fighters and terrorists. It is said that “one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.. Undoubtedly, religious leaders in the region avoid indulging in such discussions due to fear of being targeted and labelled as a traitor or the enemy of Islam. and so on. This is also one of the reasons that literature promotes extremism widely on online platforms and in affected areas, raising serious questions about the rule of law. Curiously

Strangely, the recent fights between the Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group, TTTP, and other smaller groups make people wonder when the disagreement happened, especially since they all swore allegiance to Haibutallah Akhunzada and helped each other do their work. There is no denying the fact that the Hafiz Gul Bhadar Group and the TTP had a tribal division based on Waziris and Mehsuds; however, the common animosity towards Pakistan and shared goal nullify this factor for now. Having a conflict of interest in militant activities and controlling specific areas does not mean they are at war. Therefore, it appears that they are on opposing sides of the same issue, employing similar tactics and drawing inspiration from the same religious and spiritual sources.

Most importantly, the emergence of various splinter groups reflects two things. Firstly, the creation of these splinter groups conveys the message that they are expanding within Pakistan, lacking any support from Afghanistan. This strategy primarily aims to redirect international pressure on Afghanistan, preventing the use of Afghan land against any other country. Second, these splinter groups are then asked to join TTP in a huge number to convey  the message of TTP strength and its growing relevance in the region.

Meanwhile, the situation is different when it comes to the Islamic State Khorasan (IS (ISS-K) and Daesh.  These groups are gaining strength in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  There is a good environment in both countries, but law enforcement agencies aren’t forceful, there are security holes, and the countries’ borders are open, which makes it easy for these kinds of groups to grow. In addition to that, support from rival countries emboldens their scope and reach.

Interestingly, the rapidly changing dynamics of the region are significantly influenced by the quickly evolving new Great Game. The ongoing militancy in Pakistan intensifies due to the redeployment of mercenaries to various parts of the world, particularly from the Middle East, to test the dynamics of the region. In the region, countries are increasingly relying on proxies to further their interests, even if the process means causing devastation to innocent civilians. This new Great Game will have no winner since there are only survivors after the war. Therefore, it is crucial to develop collaborative action plans, collective counter-terrorism strategies, and implementation plans to effectively neutralise militant threats. This is the only way to bring peace.