Trump 2.0: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-China Relations
- 1. Economic Tensions Resurface: Trump's return is likely to renew aggressive trade policies and technological restrictions targeting China, amplifying economic and industrial competition.
- 2. Taiwan as Flashpoint: Beijing fears Trump's support for Taiwan's defense could escalate regional tensions, challenging China's ambitions for reunification.
- 3. Unpredictability in Diplomacy: Trump's erratic decision-making complicates Beijing’s long-term strategies, forcing China to brace for sudden policy shifts that could disrupt bilateral and global stability.
The re-election of Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential race has reignited discussions on global strategic alignments and rivalries, particularly with China. Trump’s complex and often confrontational policies during his first term set the tone for a strained U.S.-China relationship. His return prompts new assessments in Beijing regarding the implications for bilateral ties, regional stability, and global power structures.
Trump’s initial presidency was marked by an aggressive trade war that fundamentally altered U.S.-China economic dynamics. Through tariffs and sanctions aimed at addressing trade imbalances and protecting U.S. intellectual property, Trump’s administration pursued an assertive approach that left significant scars on China’s export-dependent economy. Chinese leaders, while adept at managing economic slowdowns, are wary of a repeat of such volatile policy moves that could further strain their economy, particularly as it navigates a post-pandemic recovery.
Moreover, Trump’s blunt and transactional foreign policy style, which often bypassed traditional diplomatic frameworks, creates an unpredictable environment. This unpredictability hampered Beijing’s ability to negotiate or anticipate U.S. strategies, particularly when Trump frequently shifted tactics or made unexpected announcements.
One of the most pressing issues for China remains Taiwan. During his first term, Trump’s policies included significant arms sales to Taiwan and vocal support for its self-defense. Although this boosted Taiwan’s morale, it intensified China’s unease. Beijing views Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, and any U.S. policy that supports Taiwanese sovereignty or enhances its military capability is seen as a provocation.
If Trump continues this stance, it is expected that Beijing might escalate its military presence in the Taiwan Strait. President Xi Jinping, who has solidified his leadership and ambitions of regional dominance, considers reunification a critical goal. An assertive U.S. policy under Trump could push China toward more aggressive responses, heightening the risk of regional conflict.
Trump’s second term is poised to continue prioritizing U.S. economic supremacy, particularly against China’s rapid technological rise. The initial years of his presidency included moves like restricting Chinese tech giants, which aligned with broader concerns over national security and economic dependence. With areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and space exploration emerging as battlegrounds, Trump’s policies might once again focus on sanctions and export controls to curb China’s progress.
For China, these moves are significant not just economically but also politically. The Chinese government has been investing heavily in self-sufficiency to reduce the vulnerability exposed by U.S. sanctions. A renewed emphasis on American technological containment under Trump could accelerate China’s efforts to foster innovation and partnerships within the Global South, thereby seeking to counterbalance U.S. influence.
China’s leader recognized that Trump’s presidency could disrupt existing alliances in Asia and beyond. His previous disregard for traditional U.S. partnerships often led to unpredictable shifts that benefitted China indirectly, as the U.S. seemed to retreat from certain international commitments. However, Trump’s actions also led to strategic dilemmas. For instance, his engagement with North Korea showcased a willingness to upend established diplomatic protocols, which Beijing found concerning due to its potentially destabilizing effects on the Korean Peninsula.
Trump’s return poses a dual challenge: while it could offer Beijing openings created by a more insular U.S., his erratic decision-making and inclination for high-stakes gambits, like sudden tariff impositions or military posturing, could destabilize the region and derail China’s long-term strategies.
As Trump reclaims the presidency, Beijing is expected to tread carefully. The memory of economic sanctions, abrupt policy shifts, and strained dialogues remains fresh. Yet, despite these challenges, Chinese officials might see opportunities amid the unpredictability: exploiting fractures within U.S. alliances, deepening ties with other global players like Russia, and positioning itself as an alternative to a world order shaped by perceived American decline.
Ultimately, Trump’s second term will likely reinforce China’s commitment to consolidating its economic and military capabilities while remaining vigilant in the face of American policies that could range from transactional negotiations to outright confrontation. For Beijing, the era of Trump 2.0 is set to be a period of strategic patience, cautious adaptation, and readiness for unexpected developments.
The author is a scholar of Contemporary Asian and Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Tartu, Estonia, with a research focus on the political dynamics of China and South Asia. Her academic journey is dedicated to exploring the evolving political landscapes in these regions and their far-reaching global impact.
