Trump 2.0: Impacts on Middle Eastern Politics

Donald Trump’s securing a second term as President of the United States has sparked a new wave of uncertainty and speculation regarding the trajectory of American foreign policy, especially in the Middle East. Renowned for his unconventional and sometimes unpredictable stance on international affairs, Trump’s initial term left behind a complex and controversial legacy in the region. Following Donald Trump’s presidential election win, the Middle East is expected to experience a mix of continuity and disruption in U.S. policy. This article examines the possible ramifications of Trump 2.0 on the political landscape of the region, with particular emphasis on critical aspects such as U.S.-Israel relations, the dynamics between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the overarching geopolitical context.

Trump’s Foreign Policy Approach

The beginning of Donald Trump’s administration has been defined by his disruptive foreign policy, which he dubbed ‘America First,’ a policy radical in its departure from previous American diplomacy practices. His return to power will likely see him pursuing such policies. However, Morsy warns that this demonstration of peacemaking is very well likely a cover-up, as he states, “Trump and his team are likely to push for ceasefires or temporary peace agreements in Ukraine or Palestine just to look good” (Morsy, 2024). So long as Trump’s provocative strategies remain prevalent, along with his proclamations of putting “America First,” decency may prove an elusive goal, that is, if reversing the direction of the U.S.’s foreign policy ever was even a conceivable thought. Perhaps sensed as such, the Middle East, full of pre-existing conflicts, could be where Trump begins implementing his under 1 trillion-dollar presidency, where peace through trading strategically with Israel and Gulf kings is prioritized over most democratic ideals.

Future of China-US Relations under Donald Trump

In the Middle East, the one area that has stuck out in Trump’s foreign policy blueprint is his encouragement of Israel, and that position does not stand to change in a second term. In the context of Morsy’s contextual claim that “the close relationship between Trump and many of his associates with Israel,” especially in leadership, will not make things easy for Palestinians (Morsy, 2024). The recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel by Trump and his administration’s other decisions when it came to Israel’s policy towards Jerusalem are boundary markers in the Middle East policy of his first term in office. His administration also mediated the Abraham Accords that resulted in Israel establishing diplomatic relations with many states in the Arab world, thereby strengthening Israel’s place in the region.

Continuity in U.S. Middle East Policy

While Trump’s unorthodox leadership style may be polarizing, Mouin Rabbani explains how “no two U.S. presidential administrations are identical, but their differences tend to obscure continuities, particularly in matters of foreign policy” (Rabbani, 2024). This continuity is reflected in the causality with which the Biden and Trump administrations have approached questions such as Israel, Iran, and Arab-Israeli relations. Although many of Trump’s policies have been portrayed as radical, many of his actions, such as the recognition of Jerusalem or the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), have been threads of long-standing U.S. policy positions but with a stronger emphasis on unilateralism.

Rabbani states that Trump 2.0 would likely “pick up where Biden left off,” making slight changes in important areas like Israel and Iran, even if his administration might add its elements (Rabbani, 2024). This means that a second term with Trump might not change U.S. foreign policy in the region much but would follow the same strategic goals, just with more unpredictability. There could be a higher focus on sanctions against Iran and an effort for more Israeli-Arab normalization as key features of Trump 2.0.

Trump’s Legacy: Disruption and Uncertainty

Trump’s approach to foreign policy in the Middle East was seen as contentious, even though some regional players viewed parts of it as successes. For example, his backing of normalization between Israel and some Arab nations via the Abraham Accords was positively received by those wanting to ease tensions with Israel, but it did not help with the Palestinian situation. Kakar points out that “Trump’s foreign policy was marked by his diplomacy, which further distanced Iran” while focusing on ties with Israel and Saudi Arabia (Kakar, 2024). This method of using U.S. foreign policy to gain immediate benefits has significantly influenced the geopolitics of the region.

Iran-Israel War: Consequences for Global and Regional Peace

In particular, Trump’s policy toward Iran is a defining element of his administration’s overall approach to the Middle East. His decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal and to impose draconian sanctions on Tehran served to intensify the enmity between the two countries. Along with intensified sanctions, Trump and his administration targeted Iranian figures for assassination, with the most notable example being the killing of General Qassem Soleimani in early 2020. The tensions created between the U.S. and Iran roiled the whole region and could be expected to have even more ominous consequences for stability in places like Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria if Trump and his people went after Iran in an even more aggressive way during a second term (Kakar, 2024).

The Middle East has become more unstable as a result of Trump’s policies, especially his decision to leave the JCPOA and his steadfast backing for Saudi Arabia and Israel. As Kalantari, (2018) stated, “Trump’s naïve understanding of the area’s politics has destroyed most of the U.S. accomplishments in the region and smashed hopes for achieving peace and stability” (Author, year in question). Conflict has escalated, and peace prospects have been weakened by his biased approach.

Geopolitical Shifts: The Role of China and the Gulf States

Since Trump’s first term, the dynamics among the Gulf states, the U.S., and global powers like China have been moving in new directions—even if they often look like the old ones. In the Gulf, China has been vying with the U.S. for influence, and in the past couple of years, it has reliably made headway. Ghulam Ali, who teaches at Georgia Southern University, emphasizes in a recent article how the strategic calculations involving China have been coming to quite different outcomes for U.S.-aligned Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. To put it concisely, while the U.S. has been promising to “turn back to the Middle East,” the China-reconciliation factor has been carrying the Gulf states into quite a different plotline.

The economic and strategic turn to China is expected to endure, as Ali asserts that the Gulf states, having diversified their partnerships, now see China as an essential actor in both the regional trade and diplomacy arenas. “Relations between China and the Gulf states also improved significantly, with bilateral trade reaching $315.8 billion in 2022” (Ali, 2024). This development highlights the Gulf’s increasing autonomy from U.S. influence, which could render some of Trump’s proposed policies ineffective if they remain centered on persisting U.S. preeminence in the Gulf.

Conclusion

Trump 2.0 is likely to bring both consistency and upheaval to U.S. policy in the Middle East. Continued support for Israel, the imposition of sanctions on Iran, and the promotion of Arab-Israeli normalization are anticipated to remain focal points. However, Trump’s erratic style may heighten regional instability. The impact of his policies on stability or escalating tensions will be significant, as the Middle East remains a vital stage for global power dynamics, necessitating that regional players approach the shifting geopolitical environment with care and flexibility.