Trump’s Recent Stance on Canada, Greenland, and Panama: Its Reasons and Impacts
- Resource Rich Arctic: The Arctic Circle holds vast reserves of oil, gas, and minerals, with Russia emerging as the dominant stakeholder due to its extensive territory and military buildup.
- Geopolitical Rivalry: The U.S., with limited Arctic claims, competes with Russia and China for strategic influence, leveraging alliances and policies to secure its position.
- Strategic Sea Routes: Melting ice opens new trade routes, enhancing Russia's shipping dominance, while U.S.-China tensions extend to Panama’s trade and drug trafficking networks, influencing global dynamics.
Since the early 2000s, the Arctic Circle ice cover has been melting at a rapid rate, and the receding ice has revealed a bundle of opportunities for countries that touch the circle. And since prior to the ice melt, it had been largely an uninhabitable and inaccessible area, it wasn’t even contested as much. This has changed, especially so since the past two decades. This rapid decline of ice occurred in tandem with Putin coming to the helm in Russia and Bush Jr. taking the US to war in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Middle East in general. Implying that Russia was more focused on developing itself in the region and is far ahead of the US in this regard.
It was only when Obama came to power that the US started to highlight the Arctic Circle in their matters of policy and even attempted to put pressure on Russia in the garb of ‘climate change’ and tried to take a conciliatory approach with Russia to ingress itself in the region to counter Russia. Russia did not bite the bait or budge, and rightly so, because the US only had a little part (of Alaska) that is in the outer periphery of the center of the Arctic. The much larger and rightful stake is of Russia, followed by Greenland and Canada (hope it already makes sense).
Oil Reserves and Minerals
Receding ice gave access to explorations of every kind: satellite, divers, drilling, et. al., and over the years it has been determined, as of 2012 (during Obama’s tenure), that the Arctic Circle “holds an estimated 13% (90 billion barrels) of the world’s undiscovered conventional oil resources and 30% of its undiscovered conventional natural gas resources, according to an assessment conducted by the US Geological Survey (USGS).”
The US and Canada had been exploring and drilling oil in their region and the outer periphery of the Arctic since the 1970s and 80s, but the inhospitable terrain and seas hindered the efforts back then. With the latest figures, and I’m sure estimates have sharply increased, the US is vying to control the region it does not belong in or has a very nominal stake in (and we are not talking about lackey Arab regimes in the Middle East; we’re talking about Russia here, which holds the largest territory of the Arctic off of its entire Northern Areas: North Western, Ural, Siberia, and Far Eastern). This makes Russia the largest stakeholder.
This is followed by Greenland and then Canada. And the two, even if put together, don’t have a larger stake than Russia (as is obvious in the area’s map). Therefore, Trump’s posture is not his own, but that of the entire US deep state (and this is why I don’t get why many analysts take Trump as someone being against the deep state or the military in the US; he is quite a useful pawn on the chessboard). The area also holds sizeable gold, lithium, uranium, copper, iron, and other sought-after mineral reserves.
Sea Routes
The receding ice cap has also made way for icebreaker ships to easily traverse and carry goods, making it the shortest route connecting Eurasia through Russia’s northern seas. Especially to the Nordic states, the Netherlands, or the Atlantic. Russia is also, by far, the largest global operator of icebreaker ships; however, when you look at the figure of how many it operates in relation to the potential of the trade between Eurasia, it’s quite less. Russia currently has a fleet of 37 icebreakers, although it has many in the pipeline that are being constructed at the moment.
However, given China’s interest in connecting to Europe through the Arctic, it may also invest substantially. China only has 4 in its fleet at the moment. So it is going to take, I believe, another two or three decades at least to develop a fleet large enough to sustain trade and shipping (including the transport of oil and gas from the Arctic). The shipment of Russian oil and gas to Europe or even China through icebreakers, followed by regular ships, is much cheaper than constructing an underwater pipeline like the Nord Stream (which the US blew up).
National Security
Since the US deep state and military inc. had been ravaging wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East to impose its decadent ideology and hegemony and control the governments and natural resources there, Russia was quietly developing its bases in the Arctic and is the most fortified nation in the region. It is no secret now that since Putin came to power, Russia has placed infantry, radar, naval, search and rescue, air defense, and missile systems (including nuclear) in the Arctic, which many dub as the biggest military build-up since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Also, one of the fastest ways for Russia to penetrate US naval defenses is from the Arctic to the North Atlantic (Washington and New York). The US could not even track Russian nuclear submarines in the North Atlantic and had been completely blind. They only detected it after the deep-diving nuclear submarine Losharik caught fire and likely sent a distress signal. And probably started to surface to the top. Putin held a specific meeting with Shoigu on this incident in 2019 to investigate the causes.
The US has no submarine deterring capability against Russia and relies heavily on the UK’s only nuclear submarine base in Faslane, Scotland, called Clyde, to dock its nuclear submarines. It also houses almost all of the UK’s nuclear arsenal and is a hot target in the eventuality of a nuclear war in the European theatre because it has the potential and capability to detect Russian submarines. The base includes the UK’s “nuclear deterrent capability and the new generation of hunter-killer submarines.”.
Therefore, given the limited scope of the US capability of detection and deterrence in the Arctic, Greenland and Canada require political wooing or arm twisting, depending on how they react to Trump’s posture, to join the US’ sinking imperialism. It may well be that they have bases that are secretly nearing completion there, but it’s just my intuition; however, even those would still not be enough to counter Russian naval forces or match Russia’s build-up.
Panama Canal
About 40% of US container ships’ movement happens through the Panama Canal. It is vital for US economic security. For its ships to enter the Pacific Ocean from the Caribbean. There is concern in the US over Colombia stretching its muscle there and having a political leadership that is vehemently opposed to the Zionist regime in Israel and how it views US arrogance and support for it.
China has also now become the second largest trade partner of Colombia, which shares borders and influence in this regard with Panama. Panama also connects the East Coast to the West Coast of the US in the shortest sea route for its internal trade as well as naval defense apparatus. The US has about 10 naval bases equally distributed on the East and West coasts.
Panama is also the route of China’s trade with Brazil. Which is far more important for China than even Colombia. China’s trade exports to Colombia are about $20 billion, whereas with Brazil, it amounts to nearly $160 billion annually. China also relies heavily on Brazilian raw materials for its manufacturing industries. The US and China are competing neck and neck at the moment in Colombia. Colombia only has two container terminals on the Pacific, and there is no connectivity from Colombia to Brazil by road as there is the vast Amazon rainforest in the middle.
Also worth mentioning is the smuggling of Colombian cocaine happening through Panama. The US wants to maintain control of the “illegal” drug market while it also bankrolls cartels in the US in undetectable cash transactions. Americans spend more than an estimated $150 billion annually on four main drugs. And the largest chunk of it is Colombian cocaine. One kilo of cocaine costs about a minimum of $25,000 in the US, and Colombia produces at least 2,000 tons annually, with its largest and most lucrative market being the US. The US only captures or kills South American drug lords, whom they can’t control.
Conclusion and Implications for Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan
In a nutshell, all three, Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan, have suffered greatly owing to the US overreach for the past many decades. We know what it has been like and the kind of losses we have faced. Not to mention the potential we have been deprived of in the US-dominated global order. We must support and stand with Russia and China in any way as they rightfully defend their rights, whether it be in the Arctic or Panama. And we should complement their strategies with our strategies that force a multipolar world order where trade is genuinely free, as is the politics of our region and the world.
Trump’s recent statements are the harrowing echoes of an already dead empire that is fighting within itself. This fight will only intensify internally as a large lobby of influential people has realized what a mess their policymakers have made. And how they are still hellbent on driving the world to a nuclear catastrophe. They will do their best to counter it, and hence civil war in the US is not out of the question. The US arrogance and dominance were killed in Afghanistan. And it will be buried in its homeland—the US.
The author is a geostrategic observer with a keen interest in global politics, economics, and security affairs.
