COP29 in Baku: A Global Truce for Climate Action and Peace
- Urgent Climate Thresholds: Global warming has surpassed 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, with the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5°C target projected to exhaust within six years at current emission rates.
- COP29 Truce Proposal: Azerbaijan proposed a global truce during COP29, linking peace with reduced warfare emissions, fostering collaboration amidst geopolitical tensions.
- South Asia's Climate Lessons: Demilitarizing the Siachen Glacier and adopting climate-peace strategies were recommended to address interconnected crises in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region and promote regional resilience.
Recent findings from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have raised a severe concern: global warming has now exceeded the critical threshold of 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. The United Nations Environment Program’s “Emission Gap Report 2024” disclosed that an astonishing 57.1 GtCO2 was emitted worldwide in 2023 alone. The Global Stocktake (GST) during COP28 highlighted the gravity of the situation, revealing that only 400 GtCO2 remains in the carbon budget before we breach the 1.5°C limit. At the current rate, this remaining carbon budget is expected to be exhausted within the next six years. While Pakistan’s emissions were around 510 MtCO2 in 2023, they are minor compared to the global total, further emphasizing the uneven distribution of responsibility and impact.
COP29 in Baku: A Crucial Turning Point
The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) took place in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, 2024. With leaders from 197 nations attending, this summit served as a vital platform for international discussions on climate action. Yalchin Rafiyev, Azerbaijan’s deputy foreign minister and chief negotiator for COP29, has made a historic appeal for a global truce to coincide with the conference. This truce aims to foster peace and lower the carbon emissions associated with warfare, which account for about 5-6% of global emissions.
This initiative draws inspiration from the “Olympic Truce” of Ancient Greece, which aimed to ensure a period of peace and safety. In a similar vein, COP29 is being referred to as a “true COP” to establish a one-month ceasefire that includes the duration of the conference plus one week before and after. Notably, a special “Peace Day” has been incorporated into the COP29 agenda for November 15, highlighting the urgent need for peace to support both environmental and human stability.
A Region Overshadowed by Conflict
The geopolitical situation surrounding Azerbaijan complicates the discussions at COP29. Ongoing conflicts, such as the war between Ukraine and Russia and the Israel-Gaza conflict, cast a long shadow over the summit. These nearby conflicts create significant hurdles in reaching a consensus by the end of COP29. The overlap of climate issues with geopolitical tensions presents a serious obstacle to collaborative efforts. However, it also opens up a unique dialogue opportunity that goes beyond conventional diplomatic limits.
The Case for South Asia: Lessons and Recommendations
Despite their historical tensions, Armenia’s support for Azerbaijan’s bid to host COP29 serves as a powerful example of climate-driven diplomacy. South Asia, characterized by the ongoing rivalry between Pakistan and India, could learn from this approach. The Siachen Glacier, a stark representation of regional conflict, is a critical case study. As one of the highest battlegrounds globally, Siachen sees more fatalities from extreme weather and avalanches than from direct combat. Over 20,000 soldiers are stationed on this glacier at altitudes reaching 6,700 meters.
The cryosphere in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is warming at a rate four times faster than the global average. This rapid increase in temperature worsens water scarcity in low-riparian countries, especially in the Indus Basin, and heightens the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). According to EM-DAT, Asia faced 167 natural disasters in 2023, with 13 affecting Pakistan. These figures highlight that South Asia is not experiencing isolated incidents but rather a pattern of interconnected crises.
Proposals for Regional Climate Peace
At COP29, two key recommendations are presented for South Asia:
Demilitarize the Siachen Glacier: Recognize Siachen as a “Mountain of Climate Responsibility,” which would demonstrate a commitment from both India and Pakistan to safeguard future generations by prioritizing climate stability over conflict.
Holistic Approaches for Climate Justice: Advocate for policies that merge peace with environmental stewardship to create a safer and more sustainable region. This strategy would assist the Global South in achieving climate resilience while alleviating investment uncertainties for stakeholders.
The Call for a Unified Response
The need for collective action is highlighted by the fact that, in the last 16 months, temperatures have consistently surpassed the 1.5°C threshold, reaching record highs not experienced in the past 12,000 years. This emphasizes the necessity for high emitters, especially the G7 and G20 nations, to honor their climate commitments. The current temperature patterns are becoming the new norm, posing a significant threat to vulnerable nations that contribute little to emissions yet suffer the most severe consequences.
Without a clear commitment from global leaders, the goals set at COP29 may remain just words. Real, actionable steps are essential to turn promises into substantial progress. For countries like Pakistan, already facing economic and political challenges, a global pledge for peace and emission reduction could be a pivotal moment, not only for climate action but also for national resilience.
Conclusion: Beyond Promises to Action
As COP29 unfolds, it serves as both a symbol of hope and a sobering reminder of the stakes involved. The leadership of Azerbaijan’s President Mukhtar Babayev and the initiatives he has proposed offer a pathway not only for addressing the climate crisis but also for promoting peace in conflict-ridden areas. For the world’s most vulnerable nations, the results of COP29 could be pivotal in determining whether they can protect their future or confront an increasingly hostile environment beyond their control.
At this crucial moment, the international community must meet the challenge head-on. The commitments made at this conference need to be more than just lofty goals—they must lay the groundwork for immediate, collaborative action. Only through unity and determination can the world aspire to keep global warming within a manageable range and create a future where peace and sustainability coexist.
The author is a pharmacist with keen interests in politics and society.
