China’s Rise and the Power Transition: Implications for Global Order and Sino-US Relations
- China's Economic and Military Growth: China's rapid economic expansion and military modernization challenge the U.S. and reshape global power dynamics, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Ideological Tensions: China's adherence to socialism contrasts with Western capitalist ideologies, creating a potential ideological conflict with the U.S.
- Geopolitical and Trade Challenges: Disputes over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and trade relations, along with regional security concerns, contribute to rising tensions between China and the U.S.
The emergence of China as a global economic power has significantly influenced international relations, akin to the United States’ rise in the late 19th century. This shift in global power dynamics is expected to shape the trajectory of the 21st century. Historically, power transitions between great powers have often been fraught with both risks and opportunities. For instance, the 20th century witnessed a relatively peaceful transition of power between Great Britain and the United States. In contrast, the 21st century appears to be defined by the rivalry between the United States and China, as the latter emerges as a formidable economic and military power. Scholars like L. Tammen (2000) argue that such transitions are inherently destabilizing, with the potential to alter the international order significantly.
Theories from historical and political figures like Thucydides and Machiavelli underscore the relentless and continuous quest for dominance in political systems. These theories suggest that all political entities naturally seek to expand their power whenever opportunities arise and penalties are manageable. Realists assert that while conflicts with rising powers can be delayed or deterred in the short to medium term, the fundamental drive for survival eventually compels states into prolonged and often dangerous competitions. This perspective aligns with Ashley J. Tellis’s (2013) argument that the inevitability of power struggles is deeply rooted in the intrinsic nature of state behavior.
In the international system, realists identify major powers as the poles of global politics, with middle powers and smaller states aligning themselves accordingly. The power-transition theory, as described in Kenneth Organski’s seminal work World Politics, provides a framework for understanding the dynamics of such transitions. This theory posits that the international system becomes highly unstable when an emerging power begins to rival the dominance of an existing great power. The key elements of this theory include the rapid economic and territorial expansion of the rising power and its impact on the international order, particularly the dominant nation’s hegemony. As noted by Lai (2011), this framework is instrumental in understanding China’s rapid rise and its implications for global politics.
China’s growing influence has been a subject of intense debate among scholars. Joseph Frankel’s categorization of national interest into vital interests, spatial dimensions, and time dimensions offers insights into China’s strategic priorities. For example, China has shown an unwavering commitment to reclaiming Taiwan, as highlighted by Zbigniew Brzezinski (1997), who predicted that a powerful China might pose significant challenges to U.S. interests in East Asia. This view is echoed by Robert Kagan, who argues that China aims to replace the United States as the dominant power in the region and, ultimately, the world.
John Mearsheimer, in his book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, critiques U.S. foreign policy toward China and warns of the potential dangers of an unchecked Chinese rise. He suggests that the United States should have taken a more aggressive stance after the Cold War, including negotiating bilateral trade agreements with stricter terms to limit China’s economic ascent. Scholars like Hart, Jones, and Miller have also attempted to identify common characteristics of rising great powers, such as economic resilience, centrality in international affairs, internal cohesion, and the expansion of political and economic influence. Miller further emphasizes the role of culture as a source of soft power, complementing economic, political, and military factors.
China’s rise is often framed as a re-emergence rather than a new phenomenon. Between 1100 and 1800 CE, China was a global leader in technological innovation, and many argue that the Industrial Revolution in Europe was partly fueled by the adoption of Chinese inventions. As noted by Morrison (2018), China’s recent economic growth is rooted in domestic reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping, which included the establishment of special economic zones and the encouragement of foreign direct investment. However, China’s rise is not without challenges. As a revisionist power, it remains dissatisfied with the status quo, as evidenced by its disputes over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and its border issues with India.
China’s military expansion has bolstered its confidence and assertiveness on the global stage. Statements like Jia Xiudong’s assertion that “We will use whatever means we have to prevent [Taiwanese independence] from happening” highlight China’s readiness to use its growing military capabilities. The development of China’s military power extends beyond Taiwan, reinforcing realist interpretations of its rise. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and other regional initiatives aim to foster economic cooperation, but U.S. efforts, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), are often viewed as attempts to contain China’s influence. This dynamic aligns with Copeland’s argument that trade plays a crucial role in maintaining international stability, with disruptions potentially leading to conflict.
The ideological divide between the United States and China further complicates their relationship. Democratic peace theorists suggest that while democracies are unlikely to engage in conflict with one another, tensions between democratic and non-democratic states are more probable. China’s adherence to socialism, as emphasized in Xi Jinping’s writings on “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” starkly contrasts with the Western capitalist model. This ideological clash is reminiscent of the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union.
China’s growing military budget, which reached $178.2 billion in 2020, underscores its ambitions to challenge U.S. supremacy. Scholars like Robert Ross (1999) argue that geography plays a significant role in shaping the strategic behavior of major powers. While the United States enjoys maritime supremacy, China has established dominance on the mainland. However, China’s increasing focus on maritime capabilities could disrupt this balance, leading to regional conflicts and an arms race. The U.S. Department of Defense’s assessments of China’s military modernization highlight the potential challenges posed by this shift in capabilities.
In terms of military assets, China has advantages in certain areas, such as active personnel and tanks, while the United States maintains superiority in naval presence and air force capacity. Cybersecurity and foreign influence also represent critical areas of contention, with the U.S. administration implementing measures to counteract these threats. The management of Sino-U.S. relations will be pivotal in shaping the trajectory of this power transition.
Understanding China’s decision-making processes and foreign policy objectives is crucial for improving Sino-U.S. relations. Scholars like Zheng emphasize the importance of navigating this complex relationship to avoid the pitfalls of a potentially destabilizing power transition. As China continues to rise, its actions will inevitably challenge the existing international order, necessitating careful diplomacy and strategic foresight to ensure global stability.
The author is pursuing an MPhil degree in International Relations.
