Crops, Crises, and Climate Change: The Case Study of Mianwali

“I stopped growing cotton because every year the floods wiped out my entire field.”

Muhammad Roshan Khan, a farmer from Kacha Tari Khel—a village 20 kilometers from Mianwali city along the eastern bank of the Indus River—gestures toward his barren land, where lush cotton plants once bloomed. For years, he followed the same pattern: wheat in the rabi season, cotton in the kharif. But after repeatedly losing his crops to floods, Roshan finally gave up.

“I can’t afford to lose lakhs of rupees every year,” he says. “Now I grow fodder crops that mature in 50 to 60 days. They’re less risky, even if the income is lower.”

His story is echoed across Mianwali district, where climate change is rapidly transforming agriculture—from shifting sowing patterns and reduced crop yields to mounting uncertainty. This transformation is not only visible in changing agricultural practices but also in the climate itself.

Rahmatullah Khan, Assistant Director at the Mianwali Environment Department, explains that climate change has led to a 2–3°C rise in local temperatures. However, rising temperatures are just one part of the problem. “Winters now arrive late and last longer. This disrupts the natural growth cycles of crops,” he says.

The consequences are far-reaching. Dr. Owais Khan, a PhD in agriculture and research officer at a multinational agritech firm, points out that climate stress is reducing the productivity of staple crops. “Persistent fog and intense cold during winter halt the grain formation process. In recent years, both potato and tomato yields have dropped significantly,” he explains.

In addition to colder, prolonged winters, another critical issue is the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves. These extreme weather events have emerged as a serious threat to agriculture in Mianwali. Rising temperatures and extended heat spells are affecting crop development on multiple fronts, including soil moisture absorption, root and shoot growth, photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake, and ultimately, yield.

“Heatwaves compete for soil moisture through rapid evaporation, leaving little available for plants,” says Dr. Owais. In fact, the number of heatwave days in Pakistan has increased nearly fivefold over the past 30 years, compounding the stress on both crops and farmers.

In response to these challenges, farmers are being forced to adapt. Agricultural expert Syed Fakhar Hussain Shah notes that hybrid seeds have become essential in this changing climate. “Traditional seeds are failing. Government-approved hybrid varieties offer better germination rates, especially under unpredictable weather conditions.”

Consequently, long-duration crops like cotton and sesame—highly vulnerable to flood damage—are being replaced with short-duration alternatives such as maize for fodder and mung bean, which can be harvested within 50 to 90 days. This trend, according to Assistant Director Agriculture Extension Ziaullah Khan, is becoming widespread. “Farmers are now opting for crops that mature quickly and minimize risk. This shift is visible across both banks of the Indus,” he confirms.

Yet, even short-duration crops cannot always protect farmers from the devastation of frequent floods. Hayatullah Khan, a security guard from Isa Khel, recalls narrowly surviving the 2022 flood. “That year, my house in Kamar Mushani Kacha was completely washed away. This year, I lost my home again to rain-fed hill torrents.”

Unfortunately, this pattern is repeating itself with increasing regularity. Mianwali’s Deputy Commissioner, Khalid Javed Goraya, reports that nearly 400,000 people were affected by floods this year alone. Villages on both sides of the Indus—including Janttiwala, Tani Khel, Rukhri, and Piplan Kacha—were submerged. District Revenue Department data confirms widespread destruction across Isa Khel, Mianwali city, and Piplan tehsils.

Moreover, the growing water crisis is compounding the already severe challenges faced by farmers. “Rainfall patterns have shifted, and underground water levels have dropped,” says local farmer Sardar Ghazanfar Khan. “We rely on tube wells for irrigation, but electricity is too expensive.”

At PKR 5,000 per hour for pumping, many smallholders have no choice but to leave their land fallow during the kharif season. “We simply can’t afford to grow cotton anymore,” Ghazanfar says, summing up the economic pressures weighing down the agricultural community.

While these struggles intensify on the ground, climate change policy in Pakistan remains largely ineffective. Although the country ranks as the fifth most climate-affected in the world, experts argue that despite numerous policies, tangible change for the average farmer is still missing.

The 2012 National Climate Change Policy and its 2021 revision emphasize adaptation, mitigation, and institutional reform. Similarly, the 2017 Climate Change Act established a national authority, council, and fund. However, the implementation of these frameworks remains weak.

Climate policy expert Waheed Kakar critiques this disconnect. “We have the laws, but actual enforcement is close to zero.” Environmental scientist Muhammad Adnan echoes this concern, adding, “The policy framework is vague on enforcement. Weak institutions, corruption, and lack of funding are the real barriers.”

Against this backdrop of policy failure and ecological disruption, the farmers of Mianwali are left to navigate a rapidly changing environment with minimal support. While Muhammad Roshan and others like him continue to adapt through shorter crop cycles, hybrid seeds, and revised farming schedules, their resilience alone is not enough.

Ultimately, the future of agriculture in Mianwali depends not just on the determination of its farmers but also on effective policy execution and long-term institutional support. Hybrid seeds and efficient irrigation methods may offer temporary relief, but systemic change is essential to protect livelihoods.

Without urgent, coordinated action to address the root causes of climate change and to provide sustainable solutions, farmers in Mianwali will continue to face an uphill battle against forces beyond their control. This is not merely a local issue—it is a national challenge. The time for action is now, before more land is lost, more livelihoods are destroyed, and the very fabric of rural life in Mianwali begins to unravel.