Future of China-US Relations under Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s presidency was a great transformation in the relationship with China. His administration redefined the dynamics between the two superpowers with policies characterized by economic nationalism, strategic assertiveness, and confrontational rhetoric. This article discusses the major measures taken during Trump’s presidency and their lasting effects on the future trajectory of Sino-US relations, stressing the tension between rivalry and prudent cooperation.

The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy Approach

Overview of the Trump Doctrine

A “Trump Doctrine,” which had its bases in an “America First” philosophy, dramatically altered U.S. policy priorities abroad. This doctrine emphasized putting U.S. interests first, frequently at the expense of conventional multilateralism. The Trump administration’s unilateralism and actions like the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017 highlighted its proclivity for bilateral over multilateral engagement (Breslin, 2013). Not only did the withdrawal from the TPP seek to help American workers and industries, but it also indirectly opened the door for China to increase its reach across the Asia-Pacific region. (Wong, 2019).

Context of Sino-US Relations Before Trump

Before Trump, relations between China and the US were marked by a balance of cooperation and competition. Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, economic interdependence has blossomed, with China emerging as one of the largest trade partners of the United States. But there were some underlying tensions, especially concerning matters like the protection of intellectual property, trade deficits, and China’s state-owned capitalism. In the year 2016, China’s rising political ambitions and technological advancements made her a strategic rival of the United States (Lin, 2012), which subsequently prepared the ground for hostile relations that were to characterize Trump’s policies.

Key Policies and Actions by the Trump Administration Impacting Sino-US Relations

The Trade War

One of Trump’s signature actions during his presidency was the launch of a trade war with China. It was Donald Trump’s administration that imposed tariffs on Chinese goods—specifically under Section 301 of the Trade Act—frustrated by a massive trade deficit with China, which amounted to $375 billion in 2017. The tariffs started in 2018 and targeted imports from China over $50 billion (Office of the United States Trade Representative 2020). Although the Phase One trade deal signed in January 2020 provided temporary relief, the issues underlying trade tensions—including intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers—were left largely unaddressed, ensuring a legacy of unresolved trade tensions.

Technology and National Security Restrictions

 The same can be said about Trump’s administration, which pursued a very aggressive policy toward Chinese technological companies, especially in the area of national security. The placement of Huawei on the U.S. Entity List in 2019, which meant that the company was denied access to American technology was a significant event in the Sino-US technological competition. This action was in line with the overall approach aimed at preventing China from further entrenching itself in the 5G technology across the globe and thus maintaining the leading position of the US in the advanced industries (Breslin, 2013). It also tightened the scrutiny of Chinese investments in the critical infrastructure of the United States of America through measures such as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to block any be investments considered that a would threat to national security.

Military Strategy in the Indo-Pacific

Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy featured a more bellicose military posture. The 2018 National Defense Strategy classified China as a “revisionist power” for the first time, leading the U.S. to further expand its military presence in the region. Expanding naval operations in disputed waters, including the South China Sea, where China has laid claim to certain areas, has been pursued. Furthermore, the consolidation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, was a strategic partnership between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia to counterbalance the rise of China’s influence in the region.

China’s Response to Trump-Era Policies

Countermeasures to the Trade War

In response to U.S. tariffs, China implemented retaliatory measures, imposing duties on key American exports such as soybeans and automobiles. These actions were aimed at pressuring U.S. industries, particularly those that heavily relied on exports to China, such as agriculture (Wong, 2019). Furthermore, Beijing tried to soften the economic effects of the trade war by diversifying its trade relations, enhancing its relationship with Europe, Africa, and other Asian countries through projects like the BRI, thereby lessening its reliance on U.S. markets.

Advancing Technological Self-Reliance

Trump’s restrictions on Chinese tech companies marked a serious push by China to achieve technological self-sufficiency. The “Made in China 2025” initiative, which had been devised with the goal of reducing China’s reliance on foreign technology, gained new relevance. Investments in domestic semiconductor manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and next-generation technologies were accelerated in a bid to create an independent, homegrown tech ecosystem (Lin, 2012). Companies like Huawei also started working to develop alternative supply chains to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. sanctions.

Military Modernization and Strategic Posturing

Following U.S. military actions, China began to invest heavily in its military capabilities, particularly in its naval forces. This expansion of the PLAN and its presence in the South China Sea reflected the strategic goal of China to establish dominance in the region. All this, together with the infrastructure projects linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), became evidence of China’s determination to challenge U.S. military influence both regionally and globally (Breslin, 2013).

Implications of Trump-Era Policies on Future Sino-US Relations

Economic Decoupling

On economics, Trump furthered an existing tendency of economic decoupling between the U.S. and China through his economic policies. These have placed tariffs on the Chinese while encouraging onshoring American manufacturing, and global supply chains seem to be rebalancing to that effect: the US company is shifting increasingly to countries such as Vietnam and Mexico (Wong 2019). While complete decoupling may not have occurred, a distinct wariness in economic interdependence between the two has definitely taken root, a process likely to shape future relations.

Strategic Competition in Technology and Innovation

The rivalry between the United States and China is going to get more intense; this will split the global digital ecosystem. The competition in the standards for various key technologies, such as 5G, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence, might drive a wedge between the nations and make them take sides in the global order increasingly polarized. This technological divide in the various critical areas is expected to have profound geopolitical implications because nations will align with either the U.S. or China. US Department of Defense, 2018.

Regional and Global Power Dynamics

Trump’s policies reshaped power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. While countries like Japan and India welcomed a stronger U.S. presence to counterbalance China, Southeast Asian nations found themselves in a difficult position, trying to balance their economic ties with China and their security interests with the U.S. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy raised questions about the U.S.’s reliability as a partner, complicating regional relationships (Breslin, 2013).

Long-Term Trends and Strategies for Cooperation or Conflict

Predicted Trends

The legacy of Trump’s presidency in Sino-US relations is one of increased rivalry, especially in the areas of trade and technology. Yet, global challenges like climate change and pandemics are presenting opportunities for limited cooperation, where both countries would have to work together on global issues despite their ongoing competition.

Strategies for Managing Relations

In the future, the US and China will have to depend on diplomatic channels in order to overcome the complexities of their relationship. While competition will continue, avenues for dialogue and conflict resolution may arise through multilateral frameworks and cooperation on shared global challenges regarding health crises and environmental problems, among others (Lin 2012).

Trump’s presidency redefined Sino-US relations and replaced cooperation with competition. As the Biden administration is now embracing multilateralism, the balancing of this rivalry with constructive collaboration for global stability will be the challenge.