Geopolitical Transitions: The End of Western Dominance

The world order has been evolving rapidly, with significant shifts occurring almost every decade. During the Cold War, the world was divided into two blocs. After its conclusion, a unipolar world emerged, with the United States as the sole hegemon. Now, the global order is undergoing another transformation, largely influenced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geostrategic competitions have intensified, altering key actors and international rules.

Evolving Scope of International Relations: From City States to Global Governance

International relations are now unfolding more than ever in the context of war. The decline of a sole hegemon and the collective efforts of the Western world to consolidate a liberal order in their favor have triggered crises in globalized economies and diplomatic relations. Relying on a single dominant power for stability has proven challenging, as state and non-state actors increasingly play pivotal roles in reshaping the world order. Multiple factors contribute to this transition, compelling great powers, particularly Russia, to formulate foreign policies that address these changes.

The emerging global order will not mirror the internal structures of Western countries. It lacks a dominant power capable of acting as both a military and economic leader. Major players, including the United States, Russia, China, and India, are not cooperating and have never shared a unified vision of the world order—let alone domestic governance models. These nations have embarked on fundamental social and political transformations, often in contrast with Western ideals. The cultural and ideological divide between the West and the rest of the world fosters resistance to Western norms, as alternative civilizations perceive them as a challenge rather than a model to adopt.

While Russia and China appear to align on the principles of an ideal world order, they differ on internal governance. The same applies to India and Iran, whose conservative values contrast sharply with those of the West yet fail to create unity among themselves. For the first time, the international order will not reflect the internal governance structures of its leading states. The disintegration of the existing order opens doors for new alliances and scenarios. The decline of Western dominance will not only result in a leadership change but will also reshape global institutions and policies, signaling the end of the post-World War II order.

Despite the strategic alignment between China and Russia, global institutions like the United Nations remain products of Western hegemony due to their military and technological advantages. The upcoming era will be characterized by a new order, with its key actors and their roles yet to be determined. Each great power now operates independently. The collapse of both formal and informal international order foundations has led to a situation where the guiding principle among major powers is no longer adherence to norms but the doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD). This is particularly evident in U.S.-Russia relations, where nuclear deterrence plays a central role.

Unipolar to Multipolar: A Global Transition in Power Dynamics

Defining informal rules to prevent nuclear escalation is one of the most pressing challenges of our time. Establishing clear boundaries for mutual damage in conflicts between nuclear superpowers remains difficult. Economic interdependence and the vulnerability of technology to cyberattacks introduce new dimensions to warfare, potentially replacing conventional military confrontations. At the onset of the Ukraine crisis, experts feared that Western economic sanctions on Russia could escalate into an unprecedented crisis. Similarly, large-scale cyberwarfare posed the risk of triggering nuclear retaliation. Fortunately, such scenarios have been avoided thus far, with efforts directed toward stabilizing the international order. However, formal agreements among major powers remain unlikely.

The global stage will now be shaped by mutual obligations rather than unilateral dominance. Determining the permissible use of force between nuclear powers and medium-sized states adds another layer of complexity. The Global South will play a crucial geopolitical role in the coming years. In some ways, the world appears more stable than in the previous century, given various factors, including the continued global democratic process, which brings optimism. However, as multiple hegemonic powers emerge, major states must move away from authoritarian tendencies and their historically condescending attitudes toward smaller, less-developed nations.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has demonstrated how smaller states act based on their national interests and government stability. Their participation or neutrality in global conflicts is determined by their strategic stakes rather than ideological alignments. For U.S. allies, weakening Russia is a rational choice. For the rest of the world, this war represents a shift in the global balance of power rather than a personal gamble.

Over the past decade, China has positioned itself as a development leader through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Community of Common Destiny (2013). While the long-term sustainability of these models is uncertain, they have bolstered the confidence of small and medium-sized nations. China and India, the world’s most populous countries, have maintained stable growth largely due to their independent foreign policies. Many other nations are now following a similar path.

The Rise of Multipolarity: Opportunities and Challenges for Pakistan

On a global scale, no single power possesses the self-sufficiency to dominate alone. However, great powers can leverage smaller states to advance their foreign policy objectives. The ability to engage countries through strategic diplomacy will be a crucial factor in determining the next world order. Experts predict that Europe will be the only region with a clear institutional vision for managing medium and small states. However, the future of the European Union remains uncertain, particularly in light of Brexit. The departure of the United Kingdom has strengthened the influence of Germany and France over weaker EU nations.

Western countries continue to employ tactics such as economic sanctions and direct political pressure. However, a country’s ability to manage economic warfare effectively will determine its national stability. Addressing climate change through collective efforts seems unlikely, as economic interests often override environmental concerns. European climate policies, for instance, have raised doubts about their alignment with broader economic goals. Climate agendas now incorporate elements of both coercion and goodwill.

Smaller nations, particularly those that emerged from decolonization and the collapse of the bipolar system in 1991, will be crucial players in shaping the future. Historically reliant on a U.S.-led liberal order and globalization, these states now face immense pressures. Internally, many have struggled to develop resilient socio-political systems, while externally, they face mounting challenges from great-power competition. While superpower rivalries may offer them opportunities for maneuvering and resource acquisition, they also increase political and military risks.

The future international order will be the most fragmented in history. Its cohesion will depend on new variables, the contours of which are just beginning to emerge. The coming years will be defined by these transformations, requiring close analysis and adaptation to the shifting geopolitical landscape.