Pakistan at a Strategic Crossroad

The ruling elite has once again tied Pakistan’s future to unrest and escalating geopolitical tensions, much like in the past. Instead of addressing historical grievances and engaging in dialogue to stabilize Balochistan, the focus appears to be on managing the situation through force. Meanwhile, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is expected to become a focal point in emerging geopolitical tensions, attracting the influence of various regional and global powers. In such a scenario, democratic values may weaken further, political decision-making will continue to revolve around key institutional centers, and mainstream parties like PPP and PML-N may play a secondary role.

On the economic front, decision-making remains concentrated within a specific framework. I have previously written about the SIFC and how it is expected to oversee resources ranging from the mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan to Punjab’s fertile lands, Sindh’s rivers, and Balochistan’s mineral wealth. Recently, reports emerged that thousands of tenant farmers in Jhang and Khanewal—who are integral to Punjab’s agriculture—are being displaced to make way for foreign investments. This reflects a shift in resource management where land and labor are being reallocated without clear alternatives for those affected.

Global developments are further reinforcing these trends. For example, after years of facing external pressure and increasing strategic competition, China is likely to accelerate efforts to strengthen regional alliances. At the same time, India has positioned itself as a key partner for the U.S. in counterbalancing China, which could lead to further tensions in South Asia, affecting countries like Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Iran’s stance in the Gaza conflict has also placed it at odds with multiple regional and international actors, increasing external pressure on the country. In Afghanistan, the security landscape remains complex due to evolving relationships between various groups operating within and beyond its borders. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has led European countries to expand their defense budgets, strengthening their military industries. The U.S. appears to be shifting its strategic focus, which could have broader implications for security dynamics in Asia.

Beyond politics, these developments have significant economic and social consequences. The defense and security industries will likely see growth, while strategic locations may be leveraged for economic gains. However, these short-term benefits often come at a cost to local communities, businesses, and long-term stability. Some scholars, such as Professor Ali Qadri, describe this as a process where rapid development and resource allocation sometimes lead to unintended disruptions in societies. For example, projects like the Green Pakistan Initiative could result in displacement in Punjab, land redistribution in Gilgit-Baltistan, and increased pressure on Sindh’s water resources. These shifts may lead to job losses and further socio-economic challenges for small towns and rural communities.

Another aspect that requires attention is how these issues are generally framed in Pakistan. Discussions often focus on class or ethnic identity, but the economic transformations taking place have a particularly strong impact on smaller cities and rural areas. Land use changes, shifting agricultural patterns, rising costs due to global financial policies, and industrial slowdowns have created significant hardships in these regions. While Punjab is often seen as a developed province, many of its small towns face high unemployment and social challenges. Similar trends are visible in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where economic dependence on external labor markets is growing. In Sindh, migration from rural areas to urban centers like Karachi is increasing, while across Pakistan, many young people view emigration as their best option for a stable future.

A new economic and social reality is taking shape, where wealth is increasingly concentrated in major cities, while smaller towns and rural communities face growing challenges such as limited access to clean water, employment, and quality education. Scholars like Mike Davis have referred to this trend as the rise of a planet of slums, where marginalized communities struggle with limited opportunities. The response to these challenges is often framed in terms of security and law enforcement, rather than long-term socio-economic development.

In the absence of effective solutions, there is a risk that frustration and grievances could be channeled into divisive narratives—whether based on ethnicity, sect, language, or regional identity. However, these divisions do not address the underlying economic and structural issues; instead, they can contribute to further polarization. As communities continue to face displacement and economic uncertainty, there is a need for inclusive policies that prioritize long-term stability and development. French philosopher Alain Badiou referred to the growing number of displaced and economically vulnerable populations as the nomadic proletariat—individuals whose lives are shaped by economic shifts and global trends. Their struggles reflect broader challenges in balancing economic growth with social equity.

In the years ahead, the key challenge will be shaping a development model that prioritizes stability and prosperity for all, rather than focusing solely on short-term gains. The future of Pakistan’s progress will not be determined only by its major cities but also by the resilience and opportunities available in its smaller towns and rural areas. Addressing these concerns requires a balanced approach—one that integrates economic growth, democratic governance, and social inclusivity. If these issues remain unaddressed, the risk is that global and local uncertainties may lead to a cycle of instability and missed opportunities. A well-planned, people-centric development strategy can help steer Pakistan toward a more stable and prosperous future.

This article was originally written in Urdu and has been translated into English for a wider audience.

Dr.Ammar Ali Jan

The writer is a Pakistani historian, academic, and political organizer. He is the founder and general secretary of the Haqooq-e-Khalq Party and a member of the Progressive International.

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