Trump vs. Xi: Who is Winning the Global Trade War?

In the contemporary world, major powers engage in war by striving for global supply chain monopolies instead of traditional battles. Major powers utilize economic weapons, i.e., sanctions, tariff barriers, incentives, and investment, to control the movement of crucial goods and innovation, aiming to maintain the geopolitical position in the world. This new battlefield reveals the importance of technological advancement and commerce in shaping worldwide power structures, allowing them to strive for global hegemony. As the famous author Professor Ling Chen describes this phenomenon in her article “Wars without Gunsmoke,”.

China Slams U.S. Tariff Hike, Seeks WTO Action Over “Unilateral Protectionism”

The world’s two largest economies, the US and China, are taking different approaches to trade.   One is embracing economic nationalism, and the other is advancing globalization. Donald Trump’s ever-aggressive trade policies have escalated the trade war between the US and China by imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods.   In contrast, Xi Jinping has been expanding China’s trade influence through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and regional trade agreements that deepen economic ties with other countries.   Trump’s policies are not only affecting global supply chains but also American businesses. As international trade patterns shift, the question remains: Trump’s trade policies weakened China or accelerated China’s rise as a global economic power, and which leader’s strategy had more impact on the global economy?

In Jan 2017, during Trump’s first inauguration, he announced the “America First’’ policy that centered on reducing the US trade deficits and protecting domestic industries. He emphasizes that previous policies harmed US businesses, and China had taken unfair advantage of global trade rules. To counter this, Trump imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods and restrictions on trade.

In March 2018, under the Trump administration, the US imposed extensive tariffs on almost $50 billion worth of Chinese imports, targeting the technology of China and intellectual property as the main issue.  Then, in 2019, the US further imposed tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. These tariffs targeted industries such as steel, electronics, and agriculture. In response to the US policy of countering China’s access to the US market, China also imposed tariffs on US goods, hurting US farmers and manufacturers.

In 2019, the US blacklisted China’s major company Huawei over national security concerns and claims of intellectual property theft. This shift disrupted Huawei’s operations worldwide, drained its partnership with US companies, and also intensified the ongoing trade and tech conflicts between China and the US. After this, additional tariffs were levied on Chinese products. The US stated that it would prioritize competition over cooperation with China, signaling a shift in its approach to dealing with the growing influence of China. All these actions intensified the trade war between the US and China. 

Additionally, under the Trump administration, the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017, a trade agreement between the US and Asian countries. Trump argues that this agreement favored other economies over American jobs and businesses. This step distanced the US from major trade unions and allowed China to expand its influence globally through different alternatives, such as trade agreements with other countries.

China’s Conceptualization of Global Order

Xi Jinping, the President of China, shaped his trade policy toward economic diversification and globalization. For this purpose, in 2013, China started the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure project that connects Asia, Africa, and Europe by making roads, railways, and ports in different countries.   China also launched “Made in China 2025,” a strategic initiative that focuses on boosting the manufacturing sector and reducing the reliance on foreign technology by making China a global leader in the high-tech industry. Experts believe that the initiatives of Xi Jinping play a pivotal role in reducing the dominance of the US and Europe and enhancing China’s influence globally by strengthening trade routes in the region.

China also deepened economic ties with over 140 countries. In 2020, China signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free trade agreement between 15 countries, under the leadership of Xi Jinping. China plays a central role in regional trade due to Trump’s withdrawal from the TPP.   In response to the US trade war, China retaliated with tariffs on US goods, primarily agricultural products, the energy sector, and technology. China also increased efforts to reduce dependence on US goods by boosting domestic industries and stretching trade around the globe.

 Trump’s trade war with China disrupted global supply chains that affect American businesses and consumers. Due to the high tariffs, American manufacturers faced higher costs, and farmers lost access to the Chinese market. On the other side, China expanded its trade influence and countered US pressure through initiatives such as BRI, Made in China 2025, and RCEP.

In January 2025, after returning to office, Trump urged imposing additional tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada under the “America First” policy. These tariffs and trade restrictions are adding to trade tensions. While this is benefiting the growing market, US industries are facing challenges due to tariffs and sanctions. On the other side, China is deepening its economic ties through trade policies and increasing its global influence.