Wheat Wars: Pakistan’s Looming Grain Crisis

Circumnavigating the pages of history and exploring the archives of war—from the Peloponnesian War (431–404 BC) to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict—one finds a recurring theme: nations vying for control over grain supplies to dominate markets, subdue populations, and maximize profit. This struggle has recently intensified, with wheat consumption surging across India, Pakistan, and China due to rising populations and severe disruptions in global supply chains caused by the war in Ukraine. The world now stands on the brink of a wheat catastrophe, as nations race to secure grain stocks. In contrast, Pakistan’s approach appears alarmingly misguided, with policies that favor millers while neglecting both farmers and consumers.

Food insecurity has once again resurfaced as a pressing global issue. The year 2025 is being marked as an impending crisis, where over 800 million people across 74 countries are struggling for basic sustenance and stand at the edge of starvation—primarily driven by man-made conflicts in the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. In Pakistan alone, 280 million people face acute hunger, with the nation ranked 109 out of 127 on the Global Hunger Index.

Soaring temperatures above 30°C during the Rabi season are causing wheat stress and widespread food anxiety across the Global South. Extreme heat disrupts flowering and grain filling, resulting in lower yields and deteriorating quality. Climate change has caused wheat production to fall by 2–19% under irrigated conditions and by 9–30% in rain-fed areas. This decline poses a direct threat to food security in Pakistan.

Compounding the problem, erratic weather, reduced rainfall, and skyrocketing fuel and electricity prices are creating insurmountable challenges for wheat farmers. Many are forced to buy costly water—up to 6 or 7 times per season, equating to 500–700mm—for irrigation. This erratic pattern has triggered a crisis of both water and wheat, jeopardizing long-term agricultural sustainability.

Pakistan’s major water reservoirs, Tarbela and Mangla, are nearing dead levels, sparking a significant water storage crisis. This has led to a 35% water shortage in Sindh and Punjab—the nation’s primary wheat-producing provinces. According to the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, this could cause a 20% drop in wheat yields. Adding to the crisis, India’s recent retreat from the Indus Water Treaty and Pakistan’s failure to develop new canal infrastructure has further worsened the situation.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that Pakistan’s wheat production has declined by 13% from the previous year, owing to a 7% reduction in cultivation. To avoid a full-blown food crisis and stabilize domestic flour prices, the government needs to import at least 1.7 million tons of wheat. However, rather than increasing procurement, the government has bought minimal stocks—allowing middlemen to exploit the vacuum and profit from the price disparity.

Government policies around wheat procurement have proven detrimental. Farmers are squeezed by debt and offered prices far below market value due to manipulative practices by millers, middlemen, and sales agents. These debt-trap dynamics prevent farmers from recovering costs, discouraging future wheat cultivation, and increasing the likelihood of a food crisis.

The government’s erratic stance—swinging between export bans and import subsidies—has often harmed farmers, as seen in the controversial “wheat import scandal” under caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar’s tenure. According to economist Dr. Adil Mansoor, Pakistan’s wheat procurement system has long been dysfunctional, empowering middlemen and millers who hoard wheat, distort prices, and monopolize the grain trade. Without a direct payment system for farmers, this inefficiency continues unchecked.

Moreover, the government’s minimum support price doesn’t even cover the escalating costs of production, such as fertilizers, pesticides, diesel, and electricity—which have risen by nearly 40%. In this vacuum, millers and middlemen set lower market prices and reap the benefits, while farmers absorb the losses. As a result, these actors emerge as the ultimate winners in Pakistan’s ongoing “war for wheat.”

After buying wheat at suppressed prices, millers and middlemen lobby the government to either increase product prices or subsidize exports. This leaves the government without sufficient stock to stabilize the market, forcing it to import at a higher cost—further aggravating the wheat dilemma.

To mitigate this crisis, the government must urgently revise its policies. It should account for the actual cost of production—including inputs like fertilizers, tube wells, electricity, and diesel—when setting support prices. Current efforts to maintain consumer affordability while subsidizing millers backfire, as they neither protect farmers nor ensure fair pricing. Consumers eventually face price surges post-harvest, while farmers suffer chronic losses—marking a clear policy failure that enriches millers and middlemen at the expense of national food security.

Ehtasham Ali

The writer is an independent researcher specializing in arms control and international security, affiliated with the University of the Punjab and the South Asia Study Group.

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